Risk assessment after mall sorrow

Recent terrorist attack in nairobi has not slowed business plans of chinese firms

Zhang Zidan, a 13-year-old Chinese boy living in Kenya, is one of the survivors of the attack at a Nairobi shopping mall carried out last month by the al-Shaabab terrorist group based in Somalia and allied to al-Qaida.

At least 67 people lost their lives and more than 200 were injured in the siege at the Westgate Mall. The total toll still remains unclear. The mall, however, has already been completely torn down, and many of the attackers remain at large.

Zhang was saved by police and military teams but his mother lost her life in the attack, the only Chinese national among the victims.

Zhang's father, a real estate businessman in Kenya, hasn't decided yet if he will leave the country. The security threats remain, but there are factors that may convince him to stay.

Since 2011, when the Kenyan government sent its troops to Somalia to fight terrorism, extremists have been threatening revenge attacks. For the Chinese community, the security situation is exacerbated by a reported increase in crime targeted at them in recent years, begging the question for Chinese investors - Is Kenya a safe and good place to do business?

When taking office in April, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta vowed to put more effort into increasing security, and he has promised to get to the bottom of the Nairobi mall attack.

It is too early to judge his efforts but what has been seen is that forces from Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom and other international organizations are helping to lift Kenya out of the turmoil.

Given Kenya's pivotal position in East Africa, its business value is too huge to ignore.

Last year, the total trade volume between China and Kenya surpassed $2.84 billion and total Chinese investment in the country reached $474 million. China is already the second-largest trade partner of Kenya.

Chinese are a bit more adventurous in business and that is why you may see a large number of Chinese traders and business people in Afghanistan, Iraq, Mali, Somalia and other regions.

But Kenya and eastern Africa have a more stable and promising future and this is more of a reason in convincing Chinese business people like Zhang to stay.

China's Ambassador to Kenya, Liu Guangyuan, published an article in Kenya's Daily Nation three weeks after the attack, saying "China is confident of Kenya's bright future".

"There were heavy casualties. There were tremendous losses. There were deep sorrows," he said. "However, we are happy to see that Kenyans have arisen more resilient and determined than ever before.

"We are also relieved to see that Kenyans continue to focus on their social and economic development. We have every reason to believe that the Kenyan government and people will get through the difficulty soon and Kenya's future will be brighter."

Liu said after the attack he met and talked to many Chinese business people in Kenya and "although they are more vigilant, they have not slowed down business during this trying time".

The reason that Kenya has become a popular choice for Chinese is not only because of its business potential but also its tourism resources. During the past few years, the number of Chinese tourists to Kenya has rocketed.

The Sept 21 attack in Nairobi has shaken the confidence of potential visitors in the future, but the government stresses that the tourist routes are safe.

"The tourism industry in Kenya, which is the largest source of foreign currency, was predicted to suffer a temporary dip before recovery," Liu said. "However, the allure of Kenya's natural beauty and wildlife, together with hospitality of Kenyans, have kept tourists coming. I expect more Chinese tourists to visit, as China has not issued any travel warning."

The author is China Daily's correspondent based in Nairobi, Kenya. Contact the writer at lilianxing@chinadaily.com.cn.

(China Daily Africa Weekly 10/18/2013 page9)