New policy wielded as economic tool

Birth rules change 'will lure more people to our region'

China's easing of the one-child policy alone will not avert the aging population problem in the first region to allow couples to have a second child, but it will be the lynchpin of a bigger plan to do so, a senior government economist in Zhoushan says.

Bei Luguo says the Zhoushan archipelago in Zhejiang province, which became the first area in China to usher in the new second-child policy on Nov 19, intends to promote the option of having more babies as an incentive to attract skilled migrant workers.

Bei, who holds several senior government positions in Zhoushan including deputy director of the Marine Industry Cluster Area, says the new family planning option coupled with other financial and lifestyle incentives is expected to act as a talent magnet.

"Most places around China, you're not allowed to have a second child," Bei says. "The policy (shift) here is actually to lure talented people to come here and settle down and give birth to children."

For the past 11 years, the archipelago has recorded negative population growth. By the end of 2012, people aged 60 years or older made up 20.32 percent of the region's roughly 1 million inhabitants.

If the current trend continues, by 2030, 40 percent of the local population will fall into the 60 years or older demographic, and the number of retirees in Zhoushan will rank 16 percentage points higher than the already alarming projected national average of 24 percent.

Zhoushan reflects the aging population and plummeting birth rate phenomenon plaguing modern China, Bei says, and it hopes the new policy will bring an influx of migrants to combat future labor force shortages in the short term and bolster birth rates for the future.

Local officials estimate the easing of the one-child policy, which previously applied to 98 percent of Zhoushan's population, will result in an additional 1,500 births on top of the existing average of 6,000 births a year.

"The local people (having second children) might not increase the population that much, but when we've attracted more people here, it will make a difference," Bei says.

But with the policy change taking effect in the rest of Zhejiang province on Jan 17, and more regions across China expected to follow suit in the first half of this year, Zhoushan's innovative strategy has received mixed reviews from experts.

Wang Feng, a demographer with both the University of California Irvine and Fudan University, says Zhoushan's monopoly on the new child policy has already been lost.

"Zhoushan is no longer the only place to have this policy," Wang says. "Nationwide, other places will catch up, so eventually I think for most people this would not become a factor in deciding where to live."

Kerry Brown, executive director of Sydney University's China Studies Center, does not know whether Zhoushan's strategy will work. But he says implementing policy decisions at a city and provincial level is a step in the right direction for China as it begins to grapple with catering region-specific solutions to the birthrate and workforce problems.

"I suppose that's happening at the moment almost by default," he says.

Bei says as a developed region with a very small manufacturing sector, the focus in Zhoushan will be on attracting specialized and highly skilled professionals.

Yang Ya'er, deputy director of Zhoushan Health Bureau, says the workforce peaked in 2006 and the region does not expect to face shortages in the short to medium term.

"We expect a small increase in births in the short term," she says. "In the long term, there will be an increase in (migrant) labor. We hope the aging problem is not that serious as (it appears it will be) now."

(China Daily Africa Weekly 02/14/2014 page7)