Wanted: stability in an uncertain world

An opportunity to demonstrate solid plans in a time of upheaval

China expert Kerry Brown believes the two sessions gives China's leaders the opportunity to show they have a solid plan for an uncertain world.

The National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference annual meeting takes place against a background of unease about the new Trump administration in the United States as well as the future direction of Europe.

"The emphasis this year - because there is so much uncertainty everywhere else - will be this attempt to be reassuring and show there is a strategy and plan in Beijing," Brown says.

"They will want to demonstrate they know how to deal with these uncertainties."

Brown, professor of Chinese studies and director of the Lau Institute at King's College, London, says it is significant the two sessions will be the first such meetings to take place with President Xi Jinping as "core leader".

The Communist Party of China conferred the title on Xi at the plenum meeting in October.

"It sets the tone that there is internal unity when there is disunity just about everywhere else," he says.

Brown, who moved back to London in 2015 after being director of the China Studies Centre at Sydney University for three years, believes one of the key themes at the meeting will be China's commitment to globalization, in contrast to the more protectionist noises now coming out of Washington.

"Most people listened to what Xi Jinping said at the (World Economic Forum) meeting at Davos (in January). What we are seeing now is China speaking a fluent language about globalization and not America. The message from China is an important one."

He says that Xi is one of the few political leaders prepared to stand up to the populist backlash against globalization in the West.

"All these things have come to the surface with the election of Trump. Europe, too, is beset with all sorts of problems, with the uncertainty around the French election not particularly reassuring, and the Greeks still having terrible problems with their economy."

Brown argues that the difficulties in the rest of the world create more room for Beijing's voice to be heard.

"There is now a new appetite to hear new perspectives and new ideas. There is therefore more space than ever before for China to show to the world it has got this different attitude or philosophy toward governance. And I think people (in the West) will be more sympathetic now than in the past and say, 'OK, it is not as if we have got a perfect system. Let us listen and see what ideas China has about development and other issues'."

Brown believes there will be a lot of focus during the two sessions on the Belt and Road Initiative, another example of China reaching out to create new global links.

Some in China believe the Belt and Road forum for international cooperation, which is to be held in Beijing in May, will be a bigger event than China hosting the G20 in Hangzhou in September.

"The G20 was to some extent a one-off. China's hosting of it was just an event, whereas the Belt and Road Initiative is more than just a meeting. It is much more of a sustainable narrative for China. I can see why it is getting a lot more attention."

Brown, who was once a diplomat at the British embassy in Beijing, is a long-term observer of China.

Before taking up his Sydney post, he was also head of the Asia program at Chatham House, the foreign policy think tank, in London.

He is currently one of the most influential writers and thinkers about Chinese politics in the West.

One of the central focuses of the two sessions has always been the announcement in the Government Work Report of the target for GDP growth for the coming year.

Brown believes this will be around 6.5 percent once again but that it is unlikely to have the same significance attached to it as in previous years.

"Part of the government strategy is to shift attention away from this fixation on GDP growth," he says.

"There is wide awareness that the Chinese economy and its development is more complicated than can be captured in one growth figure.

"So long as there are no nasty warnings about the economy - and I am sure there won't be - everyone can go away from the meeting and get on with their stuff."

Brown believes there will be a lot of discussion about reform in the two sessions, and he expects some stronger measures to be implemented.

"There are still a lot of issues about the efficient deployment of capital in state-owned enterprises. The State sector is still in a too advantageous a position. I expect there to be real moves from next year to introduce more competition and see more hybrid businesses and more of a partnership between the State and non-State sectors."

Brown says the two sessions meeting takes place against a background where the world now wants China to succeed, since it remains the growth engine of the economy.

"China has more support in many ways in the global environment than it has had for a long time. Everyone has a vested interest in China being predictable and stable because there is so much uncertainty everywhere else," he says.

"People are very risk-averse, and I don't think they can put up with much more. If there was uncertainty in China and India also, that would not be good news."

Brown believes, however, that the Chinese leadership will be in a better position to gauge what international climate they will have to operate in later this year when the 19th CPC National Congress takes place later this year.

"By then we will know what the Trump presidency is going to look like in the longer term, and we will have a better idea how Brexit will look and its impact on Europe."

andrewmoody@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily European Weekly 03/03/2017 page7)