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Observers eye policy priorities at two sessions

By Andrew Moody | China Daily | Updated: 2019-03-01 09:32
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Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at research consultancy Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]

Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at research consultancy Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, expects the new GDP target to be in a range of 6 to 6.5 percent, rather than a specific figure.

He said that while reduced growth may disappoint some, the rest of the world cannot continue to expect China to deliver a quarter of global economic expansion, as it did in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.

"(What foreigners think) is not something that Chinese policymakers should worry too much about. This is something for them to deal with. Those expecting a (China) stimulus program just to lift global markets are going to be disappointed," he said.

Kuijs believes some of the concerns about the Chinese economy at the end of last year were exaggerated and that the slowdown is likely to bottom out.

"The government has eased its (monetary) policy stance, and that is now starting to show up. People should be less worried. That the government is anchoring or targeting a more modest rate of growth so long as it is in control of the slowdown should be seen as the correct course of action for it to take," he said.

Andy Mok, research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, an independent think tank in Beijing, also believes the government will set a "range target" for GDP of 6 to 6.5 percent.

He feels that much of the commentary on China's slowing growth lacks sophistication.

"There is a laziness of thinking when people refer to China growing more slowly. The government has talked for years about shifting to higher-quality growth and it is inevitable that the growth figure will decline. What is not emphasized is that 6 percent on the current data is much larger absolutely than 10 percent 10 years ago, because of the increased size of the economy."

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