Unrest is stifling HK economy
President Xi Jinping said in Brazil last week that ending violence and social unrest is Hong Kong's top priority at the moment and called on Hong Kong society to support the SAR government, led by Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, in maintaining "one country, two systems" as prescribed in the Basic Law and restoring public order and social stability. He also reaffirmed the central government's stance over Hong Kong affairs and reassured the 7.5 million local residents of strong support for the Hong Kong SAR from their 1.4 billion mainland compatriots as well as the central authorities. Without a doubt, this means Hong Kong society and the SAR government in particular does not have a lot of time to ponder what to do next, as the economy is teetering in technical recession while employment is sliding as we speak.
The Census and Statistics Department of the SAR government on Monday released key economic figures of October as scheduled, and they are not pretty, to say the least. Even though members of the public already knew the economy had been struggling for months, they should be told the truth and what lies ahead if the situation remains as difficult as it is now. Unemployment reached 3.1 percent in the August-through-October period, compared with 2.9 percent in the July-through-September period. Even more telling of the hard times is the external-trade figure, which registered a steep drop of 7.3 percent year-on-year. That bleak picture will most likely continue till the end of the year and into the next as well, since the negative impact of the current social unrest keeps emerging, and the question of how much longer the trade frictions between the US and China will last is anybody’s guess right now.
Given the not-so-good outlook of the global economy next year, Hong Kong had better prepare for some really tough days ahead. The only bright spot we see is up north on the mainland, as the national economy is expected to maintain its annual growth rate above 6 percent. And it can keep the momentum even if bilateral trade with the US continues to suffer under erratic US politics. That means Washington will keep meddling in Hong Kong affairs and use the city's plight as a bargaining chip against Beijing. One thing is certain: If Hong Kong wants to resume positive growth, it has to end the current unrest as soon as possible so that it can refocus on the most important thing — socioeconomic development.
People may have noticed the scale of violent riots and criminal vandalism had shrunk this past weekend despite the elevated severity of violence inflicted by some hard-core rioters. Past experience tells us such exacerbated acts are a sign of desperation. The SAR government and the police force in particular should prepare for more violent acts of desperation in the coming days to make sure the District Council elections will be free of disruption by violence and any other unlawful behavior. Although intimidation by violence seldom, if ever, works in the perpetrators' favor, the authorities are obligated to ensure public safety nevertheless.
