Experts voice optimism for economic recovery

Time a key factor

Katarina Zakic, research fellow at the Institute of International Politics and Economics in Belgrade, the Serbian capital, said the strength of China's recovery would depend on how long it took to fully control the virus.

"If the outbreak is brought under control soon, then the recovery will be quicker and smoother. If it lasts longer, then the recovery will be more challenging and it will require stronger measures coming from the government," she said.

In his speech on Feb 23, Xi said that despite the setback caused by the epidemic, it was still important to strive to achieve the goals and tasks for economic and social development this year.

The country aims to become a "moderately prosperous society" and to eliminate all extreme poverty by the end of this year, in time for the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China next year.

To meet the first of these targets, it needs to double its 2010 per capita GDP, which would require the economy to grow this year by between 5.5 percent and 6 percent.

The target for GDP growth is traditionally set in the Government Work Report, delivered annually in early March at the opening of the National People's Congress, part of the annual two sessions political meetings. However, because of the outbreak, these two key events, which see thousands of people, including the media, descending on Beijing from around China and the world, have been postponed.

Following December's annual Central Economic Work Conference, attended by China's leaders, analysts said they expected the government to set a growth target of "around 6 percent" for this year, compared to the 6 to 6.5 percent range for last year.

Stephen Roach, a leading United States economist and senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, said the Chinese economy, despite the disruption it has experienced, could still be on track.

"China's longer-term growth and development aspirations remain very much intact, in my opinion," he said, adding that this depends on continued focus on four key factors: shifting growth from exports and investment to private consumption; rebalancing from manufacturing to services; building a social safety net; and indigenous technological innovation.