Influential model predicts 599,000 COVID-19 deaths in US by July 1

WASHINGTON - An influential coronavirus model has predicted an estimated 599,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the United States by July 1.

This represents 75,000 additional deaths from March 8 to July 1, according to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

The IHME estimated that 87,200 lives will be saved by the projected COVID-19 vaccine rollout by July 1.

Daily infections are expected to remain steady at over 125,000 per day until late March, and then steadily decline, according to the projection.

At some point from March through July 1, 18 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds, according to the IHME.

Daily COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to decline across the nation. However, transmission is increasing in 19 states, data of the IHME show.

Experts have warned transmission could easily increase enough to counteract the effect of vaccination scale-up if people relax protective measures such as mask wearing and social distancing.