Strong investment to underpin growth in 2022, but COVID uncertainty lingers

Stronger investment is expected to underpin China's economic growth in 2022, yet uncertainty over expansion still largely hinges on the globally rampant COVID-19 pandemic, which may impact consumption and foreign trade growth, experts and industrial insiders said.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference concluded on Dec 10 clearly emphasized stability for sound 2022 and "front-loaded "policies to be taken to prop up growth. It also announced efforts to be made in keeping reasonable market liquidity and bolstering financing support for smaller businesses, technological innovation and green development.

The economic outlook projections triggered by the conference from research bodies have been largely looking toward cross-cyclical measures to boost investment and consumption. A report by the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking at Tsinghua University said the key for a steady growth in 2022 will be shoring up investment.

With an eye on the positive fiscal and monetary policies, the think tank projects that investments in infrastructure and manufacturing tend to stabilize before climbing next year. The report expects 8 percent annual growth in fixed asset investment for 2022, well above the 5.4 percent growth before the pandemic. Consumption, driven by rising household disposable income, will play a critical role.

However, as many advanced economies are bouncing back from COVID-19 and has showed strong momentum, the report warns that room for China's macro policy maneuver might be more limited.

According to a recent report by Morgan Stanley, China is expected to record a 5.5 percent economic growth in 2022. The Tsinghua report also projected that China's GDP growth in 2022 will range from 4.9 percent to 5.8 percent, and said it will be critically important next year to strike a proper balance between containing COVID-19 and economic development.

Experts from Tsinghua also placed the most notable factor impacting growth on overall containment and recovery from COVID-19, both inside and outside the country.

Lu Lin, a researcher at the Tsinghua think tank, said that at this time, the COVID-19 situation in China remains sporadic. And for foreign trade, which is a key factor to the nation's economic growth, flare-ups might be the biggest factor of uncertainty in impacting trade in the coming year.

"Going forward, enhanced efforts should be made to better guarantee well-calibrated and targeted containment measures. More professionalism is also required in investigating possible engaged areas and groups of people," said Liang Wannian, a member of the National Health Commission's expert panel.

Noting market expectations were trending downward in certain sectors since the third quarter, the Tsinghua report suggested that going forward, reasonable financing needs from certain sectors such as real estate shall be met properly as part of the efforts to guard against financial risks.

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, believes the government is switching from deleveraging efforts toward stabilizing the leverage ratio.

Xing also expected that intensified fiscal support by doubling down on tax and fee cuts for businesses and to support consumption. Tackling the risks on property businesses smoothly will have a notable impact on the economy next year.

Last week, the executive meeting of the State Council, China's Cabinet, just confirmed greater policy support for imports and exports to help business secure orders and anchor market expectations. The meeting noted the fast growth in China's imports and exports in 2021 as key contributions to recovery, but the sector faces uncertainty and imbalance.

In response, tax and fee cut measures will be further implemented, the meeting statement said. Export tax rebates will be processed faster, and the average time needed for those rebates will be cut to no more than six working days.

Banks will be guided toward developing new products around the needs of foreign trade enterprises, including insurance policy-based financing, and the RMB exchange rate will be kept basically stable, to make foreign trade enterprises more resilient to exchange rate risks.

The writer is a reporter with China Daily.