Ukraine tensions may fuel instability in Middle East

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia could fuel instability in the Middle East in the long run, experts said, as the conflict-ridden region has already been feeling the pressure of inflation prior to the tensions in Europe.

Yesar Al-Maleki, an energy expert and adviser at the think tank Iraq Energy Institute, or IEI, told China Daily that prior to the Ukraine crisis, rising commodity prices and inflation were already causing some pressures on food prices in the Middle East.

"The current tensions are adding a risk premium to prices. This may eventually be reflected in retail prices, household spending and outright lead to a possible increase in poverty," said Al-Maleki.

Moamen Gouda, associate professor of Middle East Economics at the Graduate School of International and Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in South Korea, said when there is a crisis, usually the short-term effects are being discussed, but the long-term effect might be more significant.

And though the European tensions may create opportunities for the Middle East, it would also be "creating a lot of problems".

He cited Lebanon as an example as it imports more than 50 percent of its wheat from Ukraine. Lebanon's Economy Minister Amin Salam said his country has one month's worth of wheat reserves and was seeking import agreements from various countries amid supply concerns in the market owing to the Ukraine crisis, Reuters reported.

"When we have a case of inflation, when we have a case of shock to commodities, we have a rise in instability, in problems, in crime, in terrorism and so on," Gouda told China Daily.

According to the 2021 Near East and North Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition report, which came out in November, hunger in the Arab region witnessed a 91 percent increase since 2000, affecting 141 million people.

It attributed the increase to protracted crises, social unrest, and exposure to multiple shocks and stresses like conflicts, poverty, inequality, climate change, scarce natural resources and the economic repercussions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gouda also said countries that depend on oil suffer major problems because "oil prices are always varying across time". 

Oil prices hovered to almost $100 a barrel on Feb 24. Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, including allies led by Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, are set to meet on March 2 to decide whether to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day in April.

During a United Nations General Assembly plenary session to discuss the latest on the crisis along the eastern borders of Ukraine last week, Abdulaziz Alateek, Saudi Arabia's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, said civilians "do not have to pay the price for military escalation" and urged all participants to work to resolve the crisis, the Riyadh-based Arab News reported.

Mahjoob Zweiri, director of Gulf Studies at Qatar University, said the statement by the Saudi representative of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries focused on respecting the life of civilians and making sure that peaceful solutions should be a priority. 

Mehmet Rakipoglu, a Gulf and Middle East expert and researcher at Sakarya University's Middle East Institute, believes the bloc "has been feeling some doubts" over the US' commitment to the Middle East region as relations have improved with Russia and China in the past years.

The GCC countries comprise the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. Other Middle Eastern countries had also called for restraint. 

Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr tweeted that wars were never a solution to problems but rather an increase in the number of problems and crises. Turkey and Israel urged Russia to halt its military operation in Ukraine. Iran said resorting to war was not a solution to the tension between Russia and Ukraine and blamed NATO for escalating the situation.

The UAE stressed that the serious developments in Ukraine undermine regional and international peace and security and called for immediate de-escalation and the cessation of hostilities.

The United States, alongside European countries and Canada, announced it would limit Russian banks' access to the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication or SWIFT, a globally recognized payment system, after Russia attacked Ukraine on Feb 24. The sanctions excluded Russia's oil and natural gas sector.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the attacks were a response to fundamental threats by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a security alliance founded by mostly European and North American countries.

IEI's Al-Maleki said if restrictions were to cover Russian oil trade, Middle Eastern countries may need to "fill the gap". But he said OPEC – which is made up of 13 countries – is finding it harder to produce more oil as "they have almost maxed their oil production capacities". 

The exceptions, Al-Maleki notes, are Saudi Arabia and the UAE which have been growing their spare capacity.

"Years of lacking investment in the oil and gas sector since the 2014 to 2016 oil price plunge and during the pandemic mean they were not able to maintain some wellhead production or expand upstream activities," said Al-Maleki.

"OPEC+ will have to discuss these issues and whether they want to increase the production ceiling of countries with higher spare capacity soon. The meeting on Wednesday will also be a chance to see how the cartel members will react with and gauge Russia's stance on the oil market," he added.  

Liu Xuan and Xinhua contributed to this report.