China cannot afford to loosen pandemic fight

Should China loosen its strict pandemic control measures? This thorny question has triggered a heated debate online, especially as the lockdown in Shanghai is affecting many residents' livelihood.

Indeed the local authorities have to do much more to ensure people get their daily necessities at the time of a lockdown, minimize the negative influence on ordinary people's lives, guarantee that patients of other diseases are not denied access to medical resources, and so on.

But such problems during lockdown should be solved by improving the logistics and strengthening coordination among different government departments, rather than loosening curbs in the fight against the pandemic.

Let's take a look at the consequences of having a loose policy against the pandemic. According to an estimate by the Office for National Statistics, on April 1, about 4.9 million people in the United Kingdom — which is about one in every 13 people — tested positive for the coronavirus. This is the highest number seen since the survey began at the end of April 2020.

The surge in infections is driven by the contagious Omicron BA.2 strain and people mingling more. The higher infection rates could lead to a rise in hospitalizations despite higher levels of vaccination among the people.

The number of infections shot up after the government lifted restrictions in February on how people should mingle, on the wearing of face masks and on mandatory quarantines. According to the World Health Organization, the UK has reported 31,286 fresh cases in the past 24 hours. From Jan 3, 2020, to April 7, 2022, the UK, which has a total population of only 68 million, has reported 21,461,560 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 169,095 deaths.

According to a University of Cambridge study, many of those infected by the virus have complained of inability to work for long periods of time. The researchers observed patients from late 2020 to mid-2021, when the Alpha variant of the virus was dominant. Among 181 people who reported the so-called long COVID, 78 percent complained of difficulty concentrating, 69 percent reported brain fog, 68 percent reported forgetfulness and 60 percent reported difficulties finding the right words when speaking.

Failure to account for the impact of long COVID will not only affect people's health, but also hit the economy. The UK is facing its biggest drop in living standards on record as wages fail to keep pace with the rising prices.

Households are facing increased pressure from rising prices, as inflation has jumped to a 30-year high of 6.2 percent in February. About 83 percent of adults complained of a rise in the cost of living in March compared with around 62 percent in November. Prices are outpacing wages and the Bank of England thinks inflation could hit double digits this year.

Deutsche Bank, one of the world's largest investment banks, is warning of a heightened risk of recession in the UK amid the cost of living crisis. It estimated the country's GDP would expand by 3.8 percent in 2022, with the economy largely in stagflation for the next two out of three quarters.

Although the UK government has implemented a "Living with COVID-19" plan for a while, it may not achieve the original goals and a similar version cannot be adopted by a country like China.

A report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention on Nov 28 assessed the potential outcome if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as some other countries. For example, using data for August 2021, the report concluded that China’s daily caseload would hit 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain.

The highly transmissible and insidious nature of the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus requires the government and the public to react even more quickly to any signs or symptoms of infection, in order to halt the spread of the virus and prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed and the death toll from rising. As a country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, of which more than 18 percent are aged 60 or above, China cannot afford to let its guard down, because that could lead to many deaths.

It is important for China to adhere to its dynamic zero-COVID approach, which is aimed at stamping out local outbreaks through early detection, swift response, targeted containment and effective treatment. In fact, China has to stick to the policy which suits the country's real conditions and safeguards people the most.

The author is a writer with China Daily.