Container index hints at global trade rebound

A report that tracks global demand for shipping containers is pointing toward a rise in traffic in February.

With China emerging from COVID-19 lockdowns and the Lunar New Year, January's global container trading and leasing data from Container xChange, an online container logistics platform, indicates that container traders and operators expect a rebound in demand.

"The rebound of trade in China, and hence the container trade rebound, will depend on the pace of the reopening in China; that is, how quickly do production volumes return to normal there," said Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange in Hamburg, Germany.

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at 50.1 for January, up from 47 in December.

"It is going to be interesting to see what happens when inventory stock levels in import countries have been rebalanced and there is a need to reorder. Effectively the question is whether importers are still wary of supply chain disruptions that will influence them to buy early or will they return to ‘just-in-time' model," Roeloffs said.

"In any case, we do expect to see a demand uptick — also because recent GDP figures make a recession in Europe less likely," he said.

Early indicators already show container operators expecting a rebound in demand as the pickup fee from China to Europe for 40-foot-high cube containers has increased by 9.7 percent from $513 in Week 1 to $563 in Week 5, the report said.

Similarly, average prices for the container units increased from $3,662 in Week 1 in China and increased by 3.6 percent to $3,794 in Week 5.

Another key development is the increased availability of containers in China. The container availability index (CAx) readings remain elevated as compared with the last three years across the ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Tianjin.

The CAx measures the ratio of inbound to outbound containers portwise — and a reading above 0.5 suggest more inbound than outbound containers at the ports in China.

Usually, the rise in inbound containers at this time of the year is because of the seasonal repositioning of containers back to China to balance out after peak season, the report said.

The global market for cargo shipping, estimated at 10.8 billion metric tons in 2022, is projected to reach a revised size of 12.5 billion metric tons by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9 period over the analysis period 2022-30, according to the Global Cargo Shipping Industry report released Wednesday on reporthinker.com.

General cargo, one of the segments analyzed in the report, projects 2.1 percent CAGR and reach 6.5 billion metric tons by the end of the analysis period.

Considering the ongoing post-pandemic recovery, growth in the container cargo segment is readjusted to a revised 2.4 percent CAGR for the next eight-year period.

China is forecast to reach a projected market size of 2.2 billion metric tons by the year 2030, a CAGR of 1.6 percent over the analysis period 2022 to 2030.