Another 'proxy war' would be huge blunder

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been viewed by many as a "proxy war" instigated by Washington against Moscow.

Many people — be it on the Chinese mainland or in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao or overseas Chinese communities — are worried that the United States might launch a similar proxy war against China, using the Taiwan region as a proxy by prodding "Taiwan independence" forces to provoke Beijing and force the latter to use nonpeaceful means to attain national reunification.

The concern is that the US would not send troops during any cross-Strait conflict, but would try hard to maintain Taiwan's combat power to the greatest extent possible. More important, the worry is that the US would encourage or even impel allies, such as Japan and Australia, to send troops to defend Taiwan.

The wishful thinking of the US, according to this view, is that Washington could take advantage of such a proxy war against China to advance its hegemonic interests. Even if China were not defeated in the proxy war, such thinking goes, its economic and military power would be severely damaged, and chaos and instability would erupt in the country.

If ever a proxy war against China were waged by the US, it would fail and see Washington sucked into a maelstrom with no exit, due to several reasons.

First, China's long-standing position is that it hopes to achieve national reunification peacefully and is unwilling to see compatriots on both sides of the Strait fighting each other.

Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law of the People's Republic of China, enacted in 2005, stipulates, "If the 'Taiwan independence' secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents involving Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the State shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Accordingly, if the US and the "Taiwan independence" forces created a situation that violated the Anti-Secession Law, such as the Taiwan authorities officially declaring Taiwan's de jure "independence", then Beijing would have to recover Taiwan in a nonpeaceful way.

Richard Cullen, an adjunct professor on the faculty of law at Hong Kong University, has asserted that there are solid grounds, based on international law, to support the view that Taiwan has long been and remains part of China.

Second, US allies, apart from feeling that there would be no legal basis for military intervention in China's internal affairs, also lack the incentive to go to war with China or impose sanctions. Instead, these allies have solid reasons to stay out of any such conflict. In any case, they do not fear an "existential threat" from China. They all have very close economic ties with China, and a war would cause unbearable harm to their economic interests.

Third, if the US declares that it would not go to war with China because of Taiwan, the "Taiwan independence" forces would not be willing or bold enough to "excessively" provoke the mainland and force it to take military action against Taiwan.

An independent task force report on Taiwan by the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent US think tank, noted that "indirect US support in the form of weapons and intelligence will not be enough; absent direct US military intervention, Taiwan's military likely does not have the ability to resist a Chinese invasion", and "only sustained US attention, training, and pressure can change these dynamics".

Fourth, Taiwan residents are increasingly worried about a cross-Strait conflict, and their confidence in the US coming to Taiwan's defense is diminishing.

Even if "Taiwan independence "forces were to provoke the mainland into a cross-Strait conflict under US auspices, they would not be able to garner the support of most Taiwan residents. And without the US ready to intervene militarily, the "Taiwan independence" elements wouldn't dare to go to war against the mainland.

Fifth, the US has already used up many resources in its proxy war in Ukraine. The conflict is bound to be a long battle of attrition into which the US will be involved for a long time. If the US needs to invest resources in Europe for a long time, any incentive to launch a proxy war against China would be significantly reduced.

Finally, even if the US were to induce Taiwan and US allies to launch a proxy war against China, this could lead to the possibility of the US actually going to war directly with the latter.

Using the Taiwan region to wage a proxy war against China would be a disastrous strategic blunder by Washington.

The author is an emeritus professor of sociology at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, and consultant to the Chinese Association of Hong Kong & Macao Studies. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.