Growth target within reach despite challenges
China will likely hit this year's annual growth target of around 5 percent with a projected pickup in fourth-quarter GDP growth, given the recently unveiled, bolder than expected stimulus policy measures and forthcoming incremental policies, economists said.
They also said that the weaker than expected economic indicators in recent months point to persistent challenges stemming from sluggish domestic demand, prompting calls for intensified policy support to sustain growth. The key focus should be expanding effective investment, boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate sector, they added.
The economists' comments came after Premier Li Qiang emphasized on Tuesday the need for faster and more effective implementation of economic policies to achieve China's growth targets for the year, as authorities ramped up measures in recent days to further bolster the world's second-largest economy.
Speaking at a symposium with business leaders and economists, Li called for swift actions to put in place the newly rolled out policies, which are designed to stabilize growth and enhance support for businesses.
Citing a package of incremental policies announced recently, Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research's Economic Research Institute, said the move aims to address pressing challenges and pressures faced by the economy, which will significantly boost confidence among investors and consumers.
"In fact, some economic indicators have shown fluctuations since the third quarter, and the economic contribution in the fourth quarter is significant for the entire year," she said. "Implementing a package of incremental policies at this juncture is conducive to strengthening confidence for meeting the annual growth target."
To promote closer monetary and fiscal policy coordination, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, and the Ministry of Finance held their first joint working group meeting on the treasury bond trade, vowing to provide a conducive market environment for treasury bond trade operations, according to a statement released on Wednesday.
In addition, as part of the country's ongoing efforts to meet the annual growth target, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on Tuesday that the country will move ahead to this year part of the investment plans set for 2025.
Raymond Ma, Invesco's chief investment officer for the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, said: "We believe that the NDRC's further confirmation, together with the recently announced supportive monetary and fiscal policies, will bolster the economy. This reinforces our long-term positive outlook on Chinese equities."
After a strong rally following stimulus announcements by Chinese authorities, Chinese stocks dropped on Wednesday as the market eagerly awaited bolder moves to revive the economy, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slumping 6.62 percent to close at 3,258.86 points.
"While achieving the around 5 percent annual growth target may be challenging, the government's newly announced policies are expected to provide substantial stimulation for the economy in 2024 and beyond," Zhu Baoliang, former chief economist of the State Information Center, said, adding that the nation can meet its annual growth target this year.
Du Yue, an associate researcher at the investment research institute of the NDRC, said that to coordinate macro policies for this year and next to ensure steady growth, it is important to optimize and implement policies aimed at spurring investment as soon as possible, including enlarging the support provided by local government special bonds.
Du said that the policy of moving to this year the allocation of 200 billion yuan ($28.3 billion) in investment plans and projects that were set for 2025 will help the country's fixed-asset investment maintain reasonable growth while lifting market expectations.
Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Banking, which is part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested at a recent forum establishing a national institution to manage the acquisition of existing commercial housing in lower-tier cities, which will help avoid the creation of new local government debt.
