Nation attractive investment choice

Swiss Re continues to see China as an attractive investment destination, as the country is still on track of robust economic growth by global standards despite rising external uncertainties, said Jerome Jean Haegeli, group chief economist of the international reinsurance provider.

"We remain committed to being here (in China) for the long term, and we view the business as highly strategic. Likewise, we do asset-liability matching and we have reasonable investments in China. And there's no reason for making any changes about our plans," Haegeli said in an exclusive interview with China Daily.

China's economy is projected to grow 4.6 percent in 2025, Haegeli said, as per Swiss Re's baseline scenario forecast in which the United States imposes additional tariffs of 10-30 percent on the nation's exports and selective tariffs of up to 10 percent on other countries, even as China takes modest retaliatory measures.

Haegeli added that a significant increase in US tariffs on Chinese exports, of about 60 percent, is unlikely, given its adverse impact on the US economy while US inflation remains above target.

Albeit down from 2024, a growth rate of 4.6 percent will still be notable by global standards, a rate that "you wouldn't even dream of" in developed economies such as the United States and many European economies, Haegeli said.

Underpinning Swiss Re's commitment to the Chinese market, Haegeli said, are the broad development opportunities in its insurance sector, where the penetration rate remains relatively low compared to other global markets.

He said opportunities for insurers and reinsurers are particularly attractive as Chinese policymakers have shown clear determination to enhance the protection role of the insurance industry for society, viewing it as a key pillar to strengthen economic resilience and address economic shocks.

"I have no doubt that they will fulfill those ambitions," Haegeli said, noting that China's economic governance is characterized by long-term thinking with great consistency and determination, which provides a unique comparative advantage in achieving its long-term goals.

In the first three quarters of 2024, insurance companies operating in China recorded primary insurance premium income of 4.79 trillion yuan ($653.3 billion), up 7.2 percent year-on-year. Assets of reinsurance companies were at 823.1 billion yuan as of end-September, up 10.2 percent from the beginning of the year, the National Financial Regulatory Administration said.

Nevertheless, Haegeli said China's economic growth has clearly slowed compared to its historical performance.

"I wouldn't be concerned about lower growth if the economic structure improves toward a more sustainable growth model," Haegeli said, citing the importance of enhancing consumption's role as a growth driver for China.

He said China has the policy scope for more easing measures to protect the economy from downward pressure, especially by strengthening the social security system to unleash more savings into the real economy.

Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said on Monday that the country will intensify macroeconomic policy adjustments to correct the trajectory of economic growth, adding that China's economy likely achieved its annual growth target of around 5 percent for 2024.

Taking policy measures to resolve debt issues in the real estate sector is essential for a more robust economic recovery, while deepening reforms at State-owned enterprises would also be important for boosting productivity by strengthening market forces, Haegeli added.

Dong Yilang contributed to this story.