Canada snap poll seen as economic power play

The decision by Canada's new Prime Minister Mark Carney to call an early federal election could be an attempt to maintain Liberal Party support before economic troubles deepen, a political expert says.

"There was always talk of an earlier election call, for a variety of reasons," said Andrea Perrella, an associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University in Ontario.

"Carney's overwhelming victory in the leadership campaign, and the apparent comfort that many voters appear to have in him is an asset that may have a fairly short life span."

The timing of the election, Perrella said, is partly influenced by economic concerns.

"It is likely that Canada will see a weakening in the economy, and even though most people can blame that on (US) tariffs, the incumbent government will not avoid voter discontent.

"It is not improbable for Carney and his advisers to figure that an early election may precede the worst of the economic decline."

In Ottawa on Sunday as he announced the snap election, Carney said Canadians "are facing the most significant crises of our lifetimes" because of President Donald Trump's "unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty".

"Our response must be to build a strong economy and a more secure Canada. President Trump claims that Canada isn't a real country. He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen."

Polling averages published by the national broadcaster CBC showed support for the Liberal Party weakened throughout 2023 and 2024. At the same time, support for the Conservative Party soared.

Rebounding trend

However, the polls indicate that the Liberals have rebounded since Justin Trudeau stepped down as prime minister on March 14. The latest averages indicate that 37.5 percent of Canadians back the Liberals, while 37.1 percent support the Conservatives.

"Many disaffected Liberals appear to be returning, with some regions showing a rebound to previous levels, especially in places like Atlantic Canada," Perrella said.

While a majority government is within reach, "there is still a lot of campaigning left to do, so anything can happen, and polls will likely tighten", he said.

Despite those advantages, Perrella said, the electoral inexperience of Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and of the Bank of England, poses challenges.

"His credentials as an economist may not matter in a campaign's demands to respond quickly to hostile and acrimonious attacks," Perrella said.

For the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, the snap election has complicated matters.

"Trudeau was the one target that helped maintain the Conservative lead in the polls," Perrella said.

"Since Trudeau's departure, the Conservatives have struggled to find a communications strategy that resonates with voters beyond their core base."

The Conservatives are now focusing on issues such as housing, cost of living and immigration and pushing to eliminate carbon taxes at the industrial level.

However, one of the issues most strongly helping shape voter sentiment is Canada's relationship with the US, Perrella said.

On top of Trump repeatedly suggesting Canada could be the 51st state of the US, the US is set to impose sweeping and "comprehensive" reciprocal tariffs on all of its trading partners, on April 2.

"Many Canadians are now flat-out scared, and they may believe that voting in this election can put in power those who are best positioned to protect Canada," Perrella said.

gaoyang@chinadailyusa.com