Energy self-sufficiency pointer to secure future

"CBM is a valuable resource that can help optimize our energy structure while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We should take proactive measures to accelerate its development," he said, advocating for stronger policy support, increased investment and technological innovation to boost CBM extraction and utilization.

Breakthroughs in ultra-deep drilling and offshore exploration, for example, led by China National Petroleum Corp, have significantly enhanced the country's capacity to tap into its abundant but challenging reserves, securing a more robust foundation for energy independence, said Wu Mouyuan, vice-president of the CNPC institute.

Wu said the country's oil and gas exploration continues to benefit from cutting-edge technologies, including digitalization and artificial intelligence, which have optimized operations and boosted productivity.

Wu believes China is expected to maintain its aggressive investment in oil and gas exploration, with new proven reserves projected to exceed 1 billion tons of oil and 1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.

Ye Lin, vice-president of commodity markets research at global consultancy Rystad Energy, said China's demand for major transportation fuels showed minimal growth in 2024, as the rapid shift toward electric vehicles reduced gasoline consumption.

The fall in crude oil imports last year was mostly due to weaker domestic gasoline and diesel demand as China imports crude oil mainly to process into transport fuels and chemical feed-stocks, she said.

As electric cars' improved performance and longer mileage are finally winning wide acceptance from customers, gasoline demand started to fall in 2024, she added.

At the same time, China's energy sector is undergoing a major transformation, as the country moves toward a greener, more sustainable energy model.

In 2024, renewable energy generation reached 3.2 trillion kWh, a 14.8 percent increase from the previous year. Renewables now dominate the power generation capacity, accounting for more than 43 percent of the global total, according to the NEA.

China has significantly advanced its energy sector decarbonization through major financial commitments to renewable technologies like wind, solar and hydrogen. These substantial investments in non-fossil energy now represent a third of such spending globally, establishing the country as a central figure in the worldwide shift toward green energy.

This energy transition has also been significantly fueled by the country's swift embrace of electric vehicles. Notably, in 2024, new energy passenger cars achieved a penetration rate exceeding 50 percent, surpassing gasoline-powered vehicles to become the leading category in the market.

China saw a substantial 31.4 million NEVs in use by the end of 2024, representing an ownership rate of 8.9 percent. This upward trend is forecast to persist into 2025, with projections indicating the number of NEVs on roads will surpass 40 million.

According to Lu, while China is advancing in its green transition, fossil fuels will continue to play a critical role in ensuring energy security in the near term.

The country's fossil energy output is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with oil consumption approaching its peak, he said.

In the future, as China shifts toward a more balanced energy structure, coal, oil and natural gas will continue to play an essential role alongside non-fossil fuels, said Lu.

According to the institute, by 2025, China's total energy production is expected to reach approximately 5.26 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, with a slight increase in energy self-sufficiency to 84.7 percent, a 0.1 percentage point improvement from 2024.

At the same time, China's oil and gas companies will continue to invest heavily in exploration and development. In 2025, the country's oil production is expected to remain steady at around 200 million tons, while natural gas output is expected to continue growing by more than 10 billion cubic meters annually.

Technological innovation will be crucial to driving efficiency gains, with digital tools and automation playing a key role in boosting production and managing resources, it said.