Israel faces strategic dilemma in Gaza

Since the outbreak of major hostilities between Israel and Palestine in October 2023, Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have resulted in more than 54,000 deaths. On Wednesday, the United States vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution that called for an "immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire" in Gaza, while the remaining 14 countries on the council voted in favor. This decision is likely to exacerbate the already severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

In fact, Israel is caught in a strategic dilemma with its uncertain goals and increasing risks. Israel's dilemma has at least three dimensions: military, moral and political.

First, the dilemma is mainly reflected in the state of Israel's traditional military deterrence. After the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Israel has not suffered any major military defeat, which created the myth of the country's invincibility. Israel is widely regarded as the only nuclear power in the Middle East, and has the premier military force in the Middle East.

More importantly, it enjoys more United States' support than most NATO members without even being a member of the transatlantic military alliance. Yet even with this enormous military advantage, Israel not only failed to prevent the Hamas attacks in October 2023 but also has been unable to force Hamas into submission, let alone driving it out of the Gaza Strip in the past year and a half. Despite Israel's military successes in Gaza, Hamas has de facto bust the myth of Israel's invincibility. If a nonstate actor under prolonged siege can pose such a formidable military challenge, how good is Israel's military deterrence?

Israel also faces a great moral dilemma. Post-war international focus on Nazi atrocities not only eradicated anti-Semitism worldwide, but also enabled newborn Israel to gain enormous global sympathy and support. But by killing over 54,000 people and causing a serious humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, Israel has been eroding this moral foundation.

Gaza faces severe shortage of food, medicines and other necessities. The appeal of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs that aid be allowed into Gaza to feed and meet the other necessary needs of 2.1 million people has fallen on Israel's deaf ears. In the face of such a humanitarian crisis, any excuse that Israel cites to continue its onslaught against the Palestinian people sounds irrational. That's why even the German leadership, which believes in Israel's "reason of state", has stressed that Israeli air strikes on Gaza has "no logic" and is "unbearable".

When it comes to political dilemma, Israel's military adventurism may temporarily satisfy the radical aspirations of some far-right groups, but it has aroused strong resentment among large segments of Israel's pro-peace population, with the anti-war protests against the Benjamin Netanyahu government continuing unabated. This internal rupture will do more harm than good to the long-term development of Israel, whose unity and national identity among different Jewish communities have been the foundation of its statehood.

At the global level, despite a series of meaningless military successes in Gaza, Israel has never been able to come up with an effective political solution. This has not only turned the Israeli military operation in Gaza into an "unstoppable gyroscope" but also put on indefinite hold the reconciliation between Israel and the Arab states. At the same time, Israel's vitriolic reaction to the United Nations truce resolutions, among others, challenges the legal foundations of its statehood, because Israel was established on the basis of the 1947 UN partition resolution.

Moreover, despite Israel's claim to be the world's only "Jewish homeland", its military adventures have fueled anti-Semitism in many parts of the world on a scale not seen since the Cold War, posing a threat to Jewish Diaspora across the world.

Israel must face up to the reality of the Palestinian people on the Gaza Strip, abandon military worshipping, and genuinely seek a peaceful and lasting solution to the Palestinian question. It's time Israel returned to rationality and emerged from the strategic dilemma.

The author is a research professor at the Institute of International Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and deputy director of the Center for Jewish Studies in Shanghai.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.