Consumption signaling H2 rebound

China's consumer market is poised to gain recovery momentum this year, with immense growth potential fueled by a series of pro-shopping policies, given that boosting consumption is a top priority for the country's economic growth for 2025, said Carol Liao, chair of Boston Consulting Group China.

"The country's consumption sector is still in the process of restoration and revitalization, and the consumer goods trade-in program has played a significant role in driving the recovery of consumption," Liao said in a recent exclusive interview with China Daily, adding that she hopes the national subsidy policy program continues.

Liao said that under the trade-in program, consumers are now encouraged to buy products with low purchase frequency, such as electronic devices, home appliances and furniture.

"We hope to see further encouragement for the purchase of some high-frequency commodities or the development of the services sector. The supportive measures targeting specific groups of people, such as parents, low-income groups and college students, can also play a greater role in stimulating consumption," she added.

Liao said she is optimistic about the development prospects of China's consumer market if such favorable policies are introduced in the second half of the year, highlighting that more stimulus measures are needed to boost consumption — including creating new employment opportunities, increasing household incomes, stabilizing the property sector and stimulating the stock market, so as to truly unleash consumption's potential.

This year's Government Work Report listed vigorously boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand across the board as top priorities among major tasks for 2025.

China's consumer market has witnessed a sustained recovery. Retail sales, a significant indicator of consumption strength, grew 6.4 percent year-on-year in May, marking the fastest growth since December 2023, said the National Bureau of Statistics. Online sales remained a bright spot, expanding 8.5 percent year-on-year during the first five months.

To further spur consumption, the country announced a raft of measures to expand the scope of the consumer goods trade-in program in January, increasing funding from 150 billion yuan ($20.9 billion) last year to 300 billion yuan, and offering subsidies for more home appliances and electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets and smartwatches.

Liao said that as Chinese shoppers have become more rational and prudent vis-a-vis potential purchases — with an emphasis on the quality and value of products — retailers should provide more high-quality and innovative merchandise.

Based on BCG's forecast, in the next 10 years, there will be tens of millions of Chinese consumers entering the middle-income group each year, so "we are still bullish on the long-term potential of China's consumption market", she said, adding that an increasing number of consumers tend to buy goods that satisfy their emotional value, such as the recent global craze for Labubu plush toys.

Liao said China's Generation Z shoppers — those born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s — are very sophisticated and pay attention to the quality and value of products, with a rising preference for cultural intellectual property.

Moreover, Liao said cutting-edge digital technologies like artificial intelligence will have a disruptive impact on consumption in the future, and currently, AI is being leveraged by enterprises to improve operational efficiency and lower costs.

Pan Helin, a member of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Expert Committee for Information and Communication Economy, said enterprises should be encouraged to use new-generation information technologies such as big data, AI and cloud computing to create new types of green and intelligent consumer goods.