Collaboration between US and China is indispensable but more needs to be done to overcome mutual misperceptions

Revolution and transformation in the Middle East and West Africa; the catastrophic earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan; the paralysis of the leadership of the European Union confronting the debt crisis in the eurozone; and the sudden death of Kim Jong-il, were just a few of the tumultuous events that caused global economic and political instability last year.

In contrast, bilateral relations between China and the United States were relatively stable and increasingly positive.

Three factors contributed to the improvement in China-US relations in 2011: mutual commitment, multi-function mechanisms, and increasing interdependence.

After a year of rocky bilateral relations in 2010, Beijing and Washington both stressed their commitment to building a cooperative partnership based on mutual respect and mutual benefit and that the two sides should stand together in the face of common difficulties.

An increasing number of bilateral mechanisms with policy communication, coordination, and implementation functions, bolstered this commitment to building a cooperative partnership. A number of new initiatives were set up, including high-level consultation on people-to-people exchanges, the China-US Governors Forum, and the strategic security dialogue and Asia-Pacific affairs consultation under the framework of the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue. The 60-plus bilateral mechanisms, in addition to frequent informal exchange visits and workshops by senior officials, have built an impressive level of institutionalization in China-US bilateral relations, which has enhanced the predictability of relations between the two countries and helped consolidate the foundation of their relations. The substance of the bilateral relationship, in essence, is not to follow the two presidents' agreements in words, but to follow the roadmap in action, and those bilateral mechanisms have built significant capacity to do this.

Third, and perhaps most fundamentally, the growing interdependence across the Pacific and emerging agenda of global governance have served as "ballast" for the bilateral relationship. Despite numerous trade disputes between the two countries, economic interdependence has been steadily enhanced, manifested either by the growing bilateral trade and investment volumes, symbiotic financial relations, or the economic restructuring now underway in both countries. This interdependence is growing increasingly comprehensive. Today, it would be very tough, if not impossible, to solve any global problems without genuine cooperation and collaboration between China and the US. Global governance has rendered bilateral collaboration indispensable and has expanded the areas of potential cooperation.

While these driving forces have framed bilateral relations in a positive mode and will probably continue to do so in the years ahead, they will require consistent hard work and careful strategic planning on both sides. Whether and how the above-mentioned three forces will function in the year of 2012, will most likely be affected by the following two variables.

The first variable is the upcoming presidential election in the US, which is confronting a longer, more sluggish and fragile recovery than expected, due to weak consumption, staggering structural unemployment and perilous government debt. The political fallout from this has already been felt in the bilateral relationship. According to several recent polls recently, an increasing number of people in the US have begun to view China as a threat to the US economy. Predictably, "China bashing" will be popular among the presidential candidates. Should Beijing remain deaf and blind and disregard this campaign rhetoric in the coming year? Will bilateral relations be vulnerable to the US' upcoming election? Properly handling the effects of the upcoming presidential election and the financial crisis on their relationship will test the wisdom of Beijing and Washington.

China is now in much better economic shape than the US. But the downward pressure on the global economy will lead the US and China to confront similar challenges of economic transformation while seeking to boost job creation.

The second variable is the gap in perception between the two peoples over each other's strategic intentions. Many US citizens view the prospect of China surpassing the US in GDP within a decade with growing concern. A number of mainstream strategists in Washington have shifted to an alarmist tone recently, arguing that the US must stand tougher than before in many areas in which China's interests oppose those of the US. Such a perception is mirrored in China, where a number of mainstream strategists and the majority of the general public have interpreted the US' strategic shift to Asia-Pacific as an attempt to contain China. The good news is that policymakers in Washington realize that a rising China is good for the US. Vice-President Joe Biden recently said: "A successful China can make America more prosperous, not less".

Nevertheless, perceptions of the other's intentions remain a cause for concern in the year ahead.

The author is vice-president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

www.chinausfocus.com

(China Daily 01/17/2012 page8)