US QE3 may fail to meet expectations

BEIJING -- The US government's efforts to boost the country's economy through a new round of bond-buying might fail to stimulate the economy as much as expected, a Chinese financial newspaper said Friday.

The global market should not expect too much from the open-ended bond-buying plan, as the current market condition is very different from before, an opinion piece in the China Securities Journal said.

The US Federal Reserve on Thursday announced a new round of bond-buying and extended the duration of its ultra-low short-term interest rate until mid-2015, marking the third round of quantitative easing, also known as QE3, that the Fed has introduced since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008.

The newspaper warned that QE3 might bring risks rather than benefits, stating that sluggish external markets will make dollar assets more attractive to investors and that the move will only generate more market liquidity and push up inflation.

The US government expects the new round of quantitative easing to bolster the capital market, which will in turn stimulate consumption, just like what happened after the first two rounds of QE, said the newspaper.

But the article pointed out that there have already been significant increases in the prices of US non-monetary assets, including share prices, which have already bounced back to pre-crisis levels. Meanwhile, property prices have started to pick up.

Therefore, there is limited room for the capital market to provide consumers with more funds that allow them to spend on consumer goods and boost domestic consumption, it said.

Moreover, QE3 will do little to push interest rates or exchange rates to a lower level, as they are already relatively low, said the newspaper.

The global market faces many uncertainties, which have provided limited room for a weaker US dollar, it said.

Similarly, US banks are already extending more credit to the market and QE3 is not likely to result in more loans, it added.

After the previous two rounds of bond-buying, the unemployment rate in the US remained at 8.1 percent, down from 10 percent in October 2009. However, this was still 2.1 percentage points higher than the Fed's target.

A Chinese economist said QE3 may increase pressure concerning the appreciation and inflation of the yuan, as more speculative capital will flow into China over market expectations for a stronger yuan and relatively lower inflation in the country than in the United States.

China will face renewed pressure for its currency to appreciate, although its exporters will benefit somewhat from stronger demand in the United States if QE3 is rolled out, said Li Daokui, a former advisor to China's central bank.