Growth forecast to exceed 7% in 2013

Zhang Zhiwei, China chief economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd, said the country's GDP growth is expected to bounce back to more than 8 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2013, then slow in the second half toward 7 percent by the fourth quarter.

Zhang predicted that whole-year growth in 2013 is likely to be 7.7 percent.

"The fiscal and monetary policies will likely remain broadly unchanged in 2013. We do not expect a sharp change in the policy stance to occur in the near term. The government will focus less on the actual rate of growth, and instead focus on the sustainability of growth, which is positive for the economy," said Zhang.

Louis Kuijs, chief China economist with RBS, predicted that growth in 2013 may accelerate to 8 percent. "China's economic growth has bottomed out, largely in response to policy support and an initial uptick in exports."

However, he said, "in view of pending headwinds, illustrated by some weakness in the November data, we do not expect a steep recovery".

Although inflation is likely to pick up in the coming six months, he said that increase would be modest, allowing the monetary stance to remain accommodative.

"We do not expect major headline stimulus unless there is a further substantial deterioration in growth prospects," Kuijs said.

"The new leadership could possibly outline a more ambitious and comprehensive approach to rebalancing, restructuring and full urbanization," he added.

Nomura's Zhang said: "China will play an important role in driving global economic growth in 2013."

According to the survey of Chinese economists, nearly 30 percent said global economic expansion will be less than 3 percent, while only 8 percent were optimistic enough to put their estimate higher than 4 percent.

Supported by expectations that the United States will continue adopting quantitative easing measures, two thirds of the economists surveyed said the US economy will expand by more than 2 percent next year.

Although most of the economists surveyed - 70 percent - said the eurozone debt crisis will ease next year, more than 80 percent said economic growth in the eurozone would be below 1 percent.

Contact the writers at weitian@chinadaily.com.cn and chenjia1@chinadaily.com.cn.

China's economy to pick up in 2013: report
Consumers hold the key to growth, says BOC report
Chinese economy to dodge hard landing: Expert
Report: China to have biggest economy by 2030
'No room for over-optimism'