Bourses look for lift from World Cup

By Xie Yu in Shanghai | China Daily | Updated: 2014-06-10 07:25

Capital market analysts expressed confidence on Monday that the A-share stock market would post a robust performance this month, thanks to the spin-off benefit of the World Cup soccer tournament on some sectors and the fast-recovering macro economy.

"The World Cup will help bolster investor sentiment and boost sales of products like lotteries and snacks. It will boost the share prices of these companies," said Tony Wu, an analyst with a Shanghai-based private equity fund.

Southeast China's Xiamen based Anne Corp, which recently won an online sales license for a welfare lottery before the tournament, said its share prices have risen by over 24 percent since early May, while Yanjing Beer, the Beijing-based brewer, posted an 8 percent growth in share prices during the same period.

Globally, the football World Cup is often seen as a "curse" to stock market performance, partly due to investors diverting their attention and capital to the sports gambling sector. China's A-share market has since its establishment experienced more losses than gains during the past five World Cups.

Historically, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index declined three times during the World Cup (1994, 1998, 2010). The SCI hit a historical low in 1994 and dropped by 3 percent during the 2010 World Cup. But it also gained twice (2002, 2006). The index surged by 10 percent during the tournament in 2006 as the bull market started in China then.

However, this summer, more people are optimistic. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.03 percent to 2030.50 on Monday, ahead of the first match slated to start on Friday. Turnover stayed flat and reached 55.1 billion yuan ($8.89 billion) at close.

The SCI rebounded slightly by 0.6 percent in May, reversing a losing streak lasting for three months since February.

Much of that has been aided by the flurry of positive developments on the economic front. Investors are particularly encouraged by the European Union's quantitative easing signal, which may usher in better monetary conditions. Domestically, the manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index hit a five-month high in May and export data also improved on the back of better global demand.

"The A-share market is heading back to a growth trajectory, and the consumption sector and the Growth Enterprise Board may lead the rally," said Li Shaojun, a strategist with the Shanghai-based Minsheng Securities.

A report released by the Guangzhou-based GF Securities last week said stock market performance is closely related to the soccer games of the previous day. If the home side plays a game on the previous day, no matter whether it is during work time or midnight, the stock market usually tumbles the next day. Meanwhile, turnover and market indices often fall to low levels on big match days but rise during the next day.