By Jiang Wei (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-08-21 11:50

Fan Jianping, a senior analyst at the State Information Center, a key government think-tank, said the figure will hit $275 billion, up 55 percent. That means the surplus growth for the whole year will drop 28 percentage points from the first half.

Slowdowns are also expected in individual sectors, including steel and textiles, which used to produce China's trade surplus.

The 2-percentage-point reduction in tax rebates on garment exports and measures to beat process trade is expected to hit domestic textile manufacturers, said an official with the China National Textile and Apparel Industry Council, who declined to give his name.

Growth of steel exports from China will slow to 20 percent for the full year due to government efforts, compared with the 97.7 percent increase in the first half, the China Iron and Steel Association said.

The forecast growth rate would be the slowest since 2003, according to the association.

But Wang Qian, an economist at JPMorgan Chase in Hong Kong, said the surplus in the second half will "stay solid", as strong global demand will counter other factors that may damp trade growth.

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