As the world's largest solar-panel producer for the last two years, China already is a major solar player. But now, some industry experts say, it's expanding from being mainly a solar-panel supplier to also becoming a substantial customer.

An employee of Suntech Power works on the photovoltaic cell fabrication line in Wuxi. China is set to become a major player in the solar market soon. [Agencies]

"China, which already is important in production, is also going to be a large solar market," Gerhard Stryi-Hipp, head of energy policy for the Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems, said last week at a roundtable to discuss trends in advance of the Intersolar North America conference next month. That's an exciting prospect, as China -- with its population of 1.3 billion -- is soon expected to overtake the United States as the largest energy consumer in the world.

While New Energy Finance forecasts that the rooftop subsidy is only likely to drive 50 to 100 mW of solar installations, Chase says the provinces could end up driving additional demand by offering their own installation incentives. Jiangsu province, for example, has announced plans to install 260 megawatts of solar through 2011.

Altogether, Chase expects to see 150 to 300 mW of new photovoltaic installation in China this year, up from 40 mW last year, and predicts the market could "easily" exceed 1 gW in 2010. "We do believe China is on the cusp of becoming a major solar market, though I suspect entirely for domestic producers," she said, adding that the market growth still won't be enough to counterbalance the current oversupply of solar panels and increase prices.

Of course, we've been hearing about China's enormous solar potential for years, and -- so far -- it's remained just that. Other analysts, including Paula Mints, a principal analyst at Navigant Consulting, says China will take more time to take off. After all, cheap coal plants are still fairly easy to start in the country, she says.