Potholes could make for a bumpy year

However, the overall global economic picture is encouraging. In the United States, the economic momentum continues and the longer-term fundamentals - cheap energy, self-sufficiency in agriculture, positive demographics and innovation - are supportive. The confusion resulting from the messaging on the taper, has abated, although change at the helm of the Fed, while manageable, has created uncertainty.

In Japan, there is a clear political consensus to drive the yen lower. Following on from fiscal and monetary stimulus, the government's determination is reflected in structural reforms. This is positive for Japanese markets in the medium-term although demographics weigh on Japan's long-term outlook.

In the Europe, structural challenges to the financial framework are being addressed and systemic risk has lessened materially. The United Kingdom's economy is rebounding, the periphery seems to have turned the corner and overall and the eurozone is no longer a drag on the global economy, although its recovery is still subdued.

But it is China that some of the most interesting and potentially important medium-term changes are happening. The uncertainty that accompanied the leadership change has abated and this should be positive for GDP growth. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China set out an agenda for deepening reform that is positive for growth, given the emphasis on free market solutions, amendment of the family planning policy, the continued shift from manufacturing to services and further urbanization. China's importance to the global economy is reflected in its role as the marginal price setter for many natural resources, for example, some 50 percent of global demand for iron ore is from China.

Meanwhile, over the last five years, the renminbi has made dramatic progress in becoming a significant currency for global transactions. This has often been via bilateral currency swaps. I believe this growth will continue as China's global trade grows. However, the transition from a major transaction currency to a major reserve currency requires a lot more structural change in the economy and the country's financial markets and change to the economy's management. But the Chinese authorities have already signaled they are willing to give up a certain degree of autonomy to market forces and allow access to China's financial markets.

To summarize, global government interventions are creating both distortions and accompanying risks that need guarding against and opportunities that need to be seized.

The author is the founder and CEO of CQS, a global multi-strategy asset management firm and the founder of the Hintze Family Charitable Foundation.