India-Pakistan meet, what is at stake?

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-06-16 11:56

SINGAPORE - Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is set to hold talks with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari on Tuesday, the first meeting since ties went into deep freeze following attacks in Mumbai last November.

New Delhi has put on hold a 5-year-old peace process, saying Pakistan must act decisively against the Lashkar-e-Taiba militants India holds responsible for the Mumbai attacks. Islamabad says it has detained some militants, but needs more evidence from New Delhi for further action.

The United States says it would like the nuclear rivals to reduce tensions and resume dialogue, so Pakistan can focus on the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda on its western front and increasingly in the heartland.

Here are some questions and answers ahead of the Singh-Zardari meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg.

WHAT IS AT STAKE?

Since the attacks in Mumbai in which 166 people were killed, India and Pakistan have traded accusations, stopped ongoing talks on a range of issues, and discouraged travel between the two countries, although the threat of a conflict has receded.

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Tensions remain high on the disputed Kashmir frontier, where India says incursions by Pakistan-based militants are increasing once again this summer after a lull in previous years.

India has in the past accused Pakistan security forces of helping these militants cross the rugged frontier to carry out attacks in Kashmir and increasingly elsewhere in India. Islamabad says it gives moral support to the Kashmiri people in their struggle for self-determination.

Hundreds of thousands of troops remain massed on both sides of the Line of Control dividing Kashmir between the two countries, although a 2003 ceasefire that ended almost daily artillery duels is still largely holding.

The two foes, who have thrice gone to war since independence from Britain in 1947, have active nuclear and missile development programmes, and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

HOW DOES IT IMPACT THE US WAR ON MILITANTS?

Rivalry between India and Pakistan, dangerous as it is, has added another dimension to the US-led war on al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Washington wants Pakistan's army to stop thinking of India as the existential enemy and focus on Islamist militants attacking its heartland, coming as close to Islamabad as Buner, 100 kilometres (60 miles) away.

If tensions could be reduced, and neighbours begin talking, the United States says the Pakistani army can then move its forces to the western front and fight al Qaeda and the Taliban. The last thing the army needs at this time is a distraction on the border with India as it begins operations in the Waziristan region in the northwest, home to the most recalcitrant tribes.

WHO ARE THE KEY PLAYERS?

Prime Minister Singh is a soft-spoken economist born in the part of Punjab that lies in Pakistan following partition of the subcontinent in 1947. He has made no secret of his desire to pursue peace with the estranged neighbour, saying this month he was ready to meet Pakistan "more than half-way" if it cracks down on militants attacking India. Singh returned to power last month with a mandate giving him a freer hand to manage Pakistan ties.

President Zardari also has repeatedly called for peace with India, stressing the economic gains of increased trade with the rising Asian power. He also offered to overturn Pakistan's nuclear doctrine by offering to commit Pakistan to a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons.

As he battles Islamist militants, including those who killed his wife and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, in a fight he has vowed to "carry to the end", he would be looking at least to a resumption of dialogue with India. Any Indian concession on that score may help strengthen his shaky position at home.

WHAT ARE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES?

The two countries may agree to resume peace talks that had made little progress on Kashmir, but had opened the way for trade, transport, sporting ties between the two countries. They could also lay out ways they planned to tackle Kashmir, the dispute at the heart of more than 60 years of hostility. Indian and foreign analysts say that away from the public eye, the two sides came close to a breakthrough in 2007 before then President Pervez Musharraf ran into political problems that eventually forced him to resign.

At a minimum, a summit would break the ice and ease tensions.

SCO Member States

	Kazakhstan
	China
	Kyrgyzstan
	Russia
	Tajikistan
	Uzbekistan

SCO Observer States

	India
	Iran
	Mongolia
	Pakistan

BRICs

	Institutional reform on BRIC agenda
	Brazil
	Russia
	India

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• Official Website of 2009 SCO Summit
• Yakaterinburg, Russia
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization
• Hu Visits Five Nations
• Hu at G20 and APEC