PV industry won’t see explosive growth

The photovoltaic industry will not expand explosively as it has until recently, said Wang Sicheng, a researcher from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, at an industry meeting on Tuesday.

The global PV capacity of 30 to 35 gigawatts installed in 2012 will increase only 20.4 percent year-on-year, compared with last year’s 76.4 percent growth, and 2010’s 126.08 percent increase, he said.

“The average annual growth rate hit 58.6 percent from 2001 to 2011, but global PV installation is expected to see a 22 percent increase between 2012 and 2016,” Wang said.

The prices of PV products dropped sharply in Europe, with photovoltaic modules’ prices decreasing 45 percent in the last 12 months.

In China, the situation is even worse. In the past six years, prices of photovoltaic modules decreased 86.6 percent, system prices were down 83.3 percent and solar electricity prices dropped 76.2 percent.

The price of solar electricity generated by a solar power station in Chongming Island, Shanghai, was 4 yuan ($0.64) per kilowatt-hour in 2008. It is currently 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

The main reason behind the sharp drop lies in the overcapacity of polysilicon production. In 2008, polysilicon’s prices were $500 per kilogram, in 2011 they were $67 per kg, in March 2012 they had dropped to $28 per kg, and now they are below $22 per kg.

China is planning to stimulate the development of the industry. Some government bodies, such as the National Energy Administration, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, have all received instructions to support solar power generation projects.