The Greek crisis was no surprise

The market does not like surprises. When surprises arise, market behavior is often exaggerated, with strong up moves on good news and powerful down moves when the news is bad. The developing situation in Europe triggered by the surprise revelation of debt problems in Greece has triggered instability in both European and American markets.

Greece will not leave the European Union and this puts pressure on the Euro, the cross currency rates and bond spreads. Friday's sale of Greek 10-year bonds at 6.3 percent looks surprising.

But is it really a surprise? Credit problems do not develop overnight. Credit problems of the size necessary to develop fear of a sovereign debt default do not suddenly emerge one Monday morning. The chart behavior of the Greek market index, the Athex 20, clearly shows the long-term development of this surprise debt revelation. Some European leaders are alleging fraudulent figures were included in the Greek economic reports and point to undisclosed currency swaps. The global reaction to the Greek situation is an interesting study in the behavior of markets.