Rising food prices haunt our future

Food prices in China may be relatively insulated from the volatile global food market and thus the country can ensure food security. But the country could become vulnerable to outside shocks in the future.

Oxfam's research on extreme weather and extreme food prices shows how a drought in the United States (similar to one this year) in 2030 could temporarily raise the prices of corn and wheat in China by 76 and 55 percent.

Mindful of this year's drought in the US, the most severe in more than half a century and the kind of event predicted to occur more frequently, the Oxfam research, based on modeling by the reputable Institute of Development Studies, forecasts a similar US drought in 2030 and calculates temporary price fluctuations. It has found that even under a conservative situation, a drought in the US in 2030 could temporarily raise the price of corn by as much as 140 percent above average, which is already likely to be double today's prices.