Uncertainty over when ODI will overtake FDI

Chinese officials have been expecting overseas direct investment to exceed foreign direct investment for several years. Given past trends and new government policies, the biggest question is not if it will happen, but when.

Over the years, many predictions have been made regarding when China would achieve parity between its ODI and FDI. In 2011, Zheng Chao, an official at the Ministry of Commerce, said ODI would exceed FDI within three years, predicting annual growth of 20 to 30 percent for ODI. In January, the commerce ministry spokesman Shen Danyang said ODI might exceed FDI in the coming year or two. Meanwhile, a study from the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted ODI would exceed FDI by 2017.

Because there was still a $27.4 billion gap between FDI and ODI last year, saying the switch will occur this year is probably a little optimistic. Last year, China's ODI expanded 16 percent year-on-year to $90.2 billion, while FDI grew by 5.3 percent to reach $117.6 billion, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce.