China would not adjust the yuan's exchange rate any further in the next three to six months while it assessed the impact of last month's 2.1 percent revaluation, a senior economist said.

"Policymakers will observe the effects of the revaluation on the economy and the degree to which it is digested. This is an adjustment period," said Ba Shusong, a vice director with the State Council's Development Research Center.

"Exchange rate reform will affect trade, employment, farm products, and the overall economy. Companies and financial institutions all need time to adjust," Ba said in a weekend interview with the Shanghai Securities News.

The Development Research Center advises the State Council, China's Cabinet, on economic policy.

Ba said the long-awaited revaluation, which also scrapped the yuan's peg to the dollar in favor of an exchange rate managed with reference to a currency basket, would make it easier for the central bank to fight speculators betting on further appreciation.

"Under the floating exchange rate system, the initiative to take on speculators is in the hands of the central bank, while under the fixed exchange rate system, the initiative is actually in the hands of speculative capital," Ba said.

The modest size of the revaluation had not given speculators much of a profit, while the new managed float system introduced uncertainty by allowing the yuan to move up or down, Ba said.

The revaluation would help bring about an overall balance in China's trade account, but would have only a very small effect on China's huge surplus with the United States, Ba said. 


 

Close