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Updated: 2004-08-24 14:57
Oil won't derail expansion - Fed officials
受伊拉克南部激戰可能導致石油出口持續受限的影響,國際原油價格不斷上漲,直逼50美元大關,創下原油期貨1983年開始交易以來的最高記錄。  

The dollar rallied against the other major currencies, helped by an easing of crude oil prices and upbeat comments from a Federal Reserve official. (AFP)

Near-record oil prices will slow U.S. economic growth but won't be enough to derail a self-sustaining expansion, U.S. Federal Reserve officials said on Monday.

"There's going to be a little bit of a slowdown effect ... but at the current levels, anyway, I think it won't derail what looks like a self-sustaining expansion at this point," Fed Governor Ben Bernanke said in a television interview.

In a separate television appearance, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer agreed. "I think (the expansion is) self-sustaining and it's not terribly fragile. I don't think it's in jeopardy."

When Fed officials raised interest rates a quarter-percentage point just under two weeks ago, they said the economy appeared poised for an acceleration after a soft patch brought about in good measure by high energy prices.

Oil prices have gained further since then, although a rally that took U.S. crude up to a record $49.40 late last week has fizzled. U.S. crude settled at $46.05 on Monday.

The latest run-up in oil prices has led some economists to scale back forecasts for U.S. economic growth and warn that an economic soft patch hit in the second quarter as consumers retrenched could prove prolonged. After expanding at a 4.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the economy grew at only a 3 percent pace in the April-June period.

Bernanke, however, told the public television program Nightly Business Report that consumer spending was already accelerating. "Most of the evidence we have suggests it has picked up fairly considerably ... and that's going to support growth going forward," he said.

He described current U.S. monetary policy, with overnight borrowing costs at 1.5 percent and the central bank on a "measured" course of rate increases, as "very accommodative" and said risks appeared balanced between the potential for a pickup in inflation and slowing growth.

"I think the risks are balanced ... and that therefore our policy seems to me to be quite appropriate," he said.

Likewise, McTeer stressed the Fed's accommodative policy stance. "The Fed has not really tightened monetary policy in any strict sense," he said, referring to the two half-point rate hikes since June.

While Fed officials are expected to boost borrowing costs at their next meeting on Sept. 21, many analysts think the central bank will pause in its rate-rise cycle at some point this year and are watching closely for signs from the Fed on how high oil prices will impact interest rates.

Both Fed officials said high oil prices complicated the picture for the central bank, because energy price gains not only slow growth but push up inflation.

(Agencies)

 

Vocabulary:
 

derail: cause to run off the tracks(出軌)

jeopardy: a source of danger; a possibility of incurring loss or misfortune(危險)

retrench: tighten one's belt; use resources carefully(緊縮,節約)

accommodative: helpful in bringing about a harmonious adaptation(善于適應新環境的)

 
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