Experts: China's century is taking shape
By Tim Johnson (Knight Ridder)
Updated: 2005-07-17 21:09

American analysts figure it will be years before China's military is on par with the United States'. But it doesn't have to be an even match to pose a serious threat. China's submarines soon will acquire supersonic missiles that could slow or damage U.S. aircraft carriers if they moved to defend Taiwan

In its quest, China has extended its influence to Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. Its "see no evil" foreign policy sometimes puts it at odds with the U.S. interest in promoting democracy, human rights and nuclear security. With investment and diplomatic support, for example, China bolsters oil-rich Iran and Sudan.

Global ambitions

China's global ambitions -- and the hopes of many Chinese for a freer society -- rest on the prospect of sustained growth. In the long run, economic openness might lead to greater political freedom, as it has in Taiwan and South Korea. As people get richer, they tend to want to join groups of people with similar interests, they seek to protect their rights in court and, finally, they want a say in how they're governed.

But China's gap between rich and poor yawns ever wider, fueling frustration and resentment.

Urban, middle-aged Chinese marvel at how much their country has changed since they were young.

"Twenty years ago, I dreamed of having a watch. My family was too poor to buy me a watch. So I drew one on my wrist with ink," said Li Tao, a research fellow in Beijing at Tsinghua University, one of China's premier institutions. "Now I have a car."

Billboards and TV ads pitch the latest BMW models, liquors and perfumes. Chinese can move about the country, switch jobs, acquire passports, start businesses, and buy and sell homes.

"I used to live in a very shabby apartment.... The wooden floor was rotten. There were rats everywhere," said Yi Shoucheng, a deputy manager at a cutlery factory in Wuhu, the last deep-water port along the Yangtze River, where industrial zones throb with activity and bulldozers flatten old homes to make way for apartments.

The farming hamlet of Xiangfengwei is a 40-minute drive from Wuhu. Running water arrived in 1973, electricity a decade later. Relief from poverty has yet to come. Many people burn straw or coal to cook.

Rural unrest is a potential flash point.

"Their logic is that everything depends on stability," said Wang Yizhou, the deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Development, growth, reform, all of it depends on one condition: stability.''

Other potential obstacles:

* China's banking and financial systems are in serious need of reform.

* Years of rapid growth with little concern for the environment have taken a heavy toll on the land, the air and the health of many people.

* China needs far more energy than it can supply.

* A protectionist backlash could rise from the United States or other countries. Labor-intensive industries such as textiles have been pressing Washington for protectionist measures. The Commerce Department recently agreed to temporary quotas on some cotton clothing from China after global quotas expired in 2004. Still, many American companies want an expanded trade relationship.

Looming tension

China's very size -- 1.3 billion people -- makes questions about its future all the more important.

"China is the largest laboratory of social, economic and political change in modern history," said Zhang Weiwei, a Chinese political scientist who lives in France.

The ripple effects of such rapid, large-scale economic development are being felt in Asia and the rest of the world.

China's growing tensions with Japan, for example, are partly due to disputes over undersea oil deposits in the East China Sea.

Eventually, the United States could find itself competing with China for dominance in Asia. It would be the first time the United States faced a challenger with so much economic power.

China's leaders have sought smooth relations with the United States while they focus on domestic problems. In the meantime, a growing China has started to help solve global problems, from support for the government of Afghanistan to the fight against AIDS.

"Our children and grandchildren are going to live in a world where China will be a very strong and powerful player on the world scene," veteran U.S. diplomat John Negroponte said during a confirmation hearing for his new job as national intelligence director.

(This story is an edited version of the report by Tim Johnson, Knight Ridder, published in the website www.mercurynews.com.)

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