Sharon, Abbas need each other after Gaza pullout
(AP)
Updated: 2005-09-14 23:05

The Middle East's odd couple may find they need each other more than ever, the Associated Press reported.

As both sides turn from Israel's unprecedented withdrawal from Gaza to their own internal struggles, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas could each be key for the other's political fortunes.

Sharon must slap down a bid to oust him within his right wing Likud party -- and would be helped if Abbas can keep ensuring Palestinian militants hold their fire or make a genuine effort to start disarming the factions.

If he is to really face up to disparate armed groups and Islamists, Abbas wants to show his peacemaking can deliver more than violence can, that Israel will not keep a stranglehold on Gaza and that it could one day give up more land for a Palestinian state.

Old soldier Sharon, 77, who was long Israel's arch hawk, and the dapper and reserved Palestinian businessman, 70, began a partnership in February with a truce that largely held as Israel ended its 38-year presence in Gaza.

Whether that leads the two men into revived peacemaking at some stage depends on how they manage the immediate domestic challenges.

Despite world accolades and Israeli majority support for the Gaza pullout, Sharon faces a Likud leadership challenge from withdrawal opponent and perennial rival Benjamin Netanyahu -- shown by internal polls to have a slight edge.

Likud's central committee is to meet late this month to decide whether to hold early primaries, which could mean elections much sooner than the November 2006 due date and might push Sharon to leave the party.

Lobbying by both pro- and anti-Sharon camps is intense.

Sharon's hand should be strengthened by praise at the U.N. General Assembly this week for his plan to "disengage" from conflict with the Palestinians.

Any surge of violence could harm him badly and experience shows how easily bloodshed can come about.

The central pillar of Netanyahu's opposition to the pullout was that the plan would reward a Palestinian uprising and put the Jewish state at greater danger of attack.

"What is important now is that Abbas makes sure that the calm continues. If not, if there is a major terrorist attack, then it could be much more difficult for Sharon," said one confidant of the Israeli prime minister.

PRESSURE ON ABBAS

Now that Israel has given up Gaza, the Palestinians are under both Israeli and U.S. pressure to try to disarm militant groups rather than just getting them to stop launching attacks.

Sharon has set disarmament as a precondition to talks on statehood and Palestinians were meant to begin the process under a long-stalled peace "road map" backed by Washington.

In a sign that he might mean action this time, Abbas threatened after the Israeli pullout that he would accept no challenge to his Palestinian Authority -- but some militants even from his own Fatah movement refuse to disarm.

So far, Abbas has tried persuasion rather than force, saying that could risk civil war.

Now, Abbas aides even talk of ensuring powerful Hamas puts down its weapons after January parliamentary elections, which the Islamic faction sworn to destroying Israel is contesting for the first time with expectations of doing well.

But to gain the necessary leverage, Abbas also wants more signs from Israel that the Gaza plan was not -- as many Palestinians suspect -- just a ruse to strengthen the Israeli hold on the occupied West Bank.

It is 10 times the size of Gaza and is seen by Palestinians as the heartland of the state they seek.

"The challenge for Abbas is to compel Israel to deal with Palestinians and the Palestinian agenda. Otherwise his credibility is going to suffer enormously," said Mouin Rabbani of the International Crisis Group thinktank.

At the top of the list is a Palestinian demand for Israel to allow free movement to and from Gaza, something it says it is reluctant to allow yet for security reasons.

Israeli analysts also say there is little more Sharon can give for now if he is to maintain the support of his own right wing so soon after quitting Gaza.

Infuriating the Palestinians, Sharon has already vowed to keep strengthening big West Bank settlements despite its road map commitment to freeze building and remove settler outposts.

Potential confidence-building measures could be releases of Palestinian prisoners or pulling back some of the troops around West Bank cities.

But there is absolutely no sign of the early negotiations on Palestinian statehood that Abbas would like. Even more limited measures would take time.

"Until the Palestinians can show that they can act against the terrorist groups, there is going to be a consensus not to give more," said Gerald Steinberg of Israel's Bar-Ilan University. "If things are quiet for six months then we could begin to see action."

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