China disapproves Taiwan independence signals
By JOSEPH KAHN and KEITH BRADSHER (NYtimes.com)
Updated: 2006-03-01 08:48

"It has been my view for sometime that although the United States does not support Taiwan independence, it does not have the determination to prevent Chen Shui-Bian from achieving de jure independence through tricks of this sort," Mr. Yan said.

He added that the burden of preventing Taiwanese independence must fall on Beijing more than the United States. The risk of military conflict remains relatively high as long as Mr. Chen controls Taiwan's government, he said.

Mr. Huang of People's University was more sanguine about the preventing an escalation of tensions. He said that although Mr. Chen persisted with his latest move, the United States had been proactive in opposing the measure from the start, forcing at least a nominal concession from Mr. Chen and making clear that additional moves would jeopardize Taiwan's already strained ties with the Bush administration.

But he said China would likely look for President Bush to make a fresh commitment to oppose Taiwanese independence, perhaps during Chinese President Hu Jintao's planned visit to Washington in April. In late 2003, Mr. Bush strongly opposed moves by Mr. Chen to solidify Taiwan's independent status during a visit to Washington by China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao.

"The United States need to make clear that it understands what Mr. Chen is doing and will not allow him to get away with it," said Mr. Huang. "It's obvious that the line needs to be drawn again."

In contrast, some Taiwanese lawmakers said Mr. Chen's move was vital to preserving a balance in cross-Strait relations, which have become dominated by the mainland.

Hsiao Bi-khim, an influential lawmaker from Chen's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, said that Mr. Chen had been increasingly worried that Beijing had been trying to gain the upper hand and reshape cross-straits relations.

"He feels that you need to do something drastic to pull things back into balance," she said, adding that she did not expect any further initiatives on sovereignty issues now that Chen has disposed of the unification council and guidelines.

Ms. Hsiao cited Beijing's increasing cooperation with opposition parties here, which has included visits to the mainland last spring by the chairmen of the two main parties favoring an eventual political unification with the mainland, the Nationalist Party and the People First Party.

Ma Ying-jeou, the popular mayor of Taipei and chairman of the Nationalist Party, called for eventual political unification with the mainland using language that bore strong similarities to the National Unification Guidelines, a move that also made Chen more eager to get rid of the guidelines.