China may overtake France in economy
(Bloomberg)
Updated: 2006-01-23 09:12

Driving Force

On Jan. 9, the statistics bureau raised its estimate for 2004 GDP growth to 10.1 percent from 9.5 percent to reflect the census findings. The National Development and Reform Commission, the nation's top economic planning agency, on Jan. 5 said the economy likely expanded 9.8 percent in 2005.

China's economy probably expanded 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The statistics bureau hasn't issued revisions to historical quarterly growth figures.

Growth may cool to as little as 8.5 percent this year as China keeps lending curbs on investment and last year's record $102 billion trade surplus narrows, the agency's research unit said in a report in the official China Securities Journal. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast 9 percent expansion. Japan's government expects GDP growth of 1.9 percent this year.

``China will still be a very important driver'' of global growth, said Stephen King, head of global economic research at HSBC Holdings Plc. ``We've already seen from last year's upward surprises that it has a big impact on energy prices globally, on commodity prices globally. I can't see that changing very much this year.''