Oscar watchers narrow list of top film nominees

Sharon Leal Beyonce Knowles and Anika Noni Rose in a scene from the film 'Dreamgirls' in a photo courtesy of DreamWorks Pictures. Hollywood experts on Friday narrowed their guesses for best film Oscar candidates after seeing this week's key award nominations. [Reuters]

Hollywood experts on Friday narrowed their guesses for best film Oscar candidates to a short list including widely touted musical "Dreamgirls" and crime thriller "The Departed," after seeing this week's key award nominations.

Close behind on the short list are comedy "Little Miss Sunshine" and searing cultural drama "Babel." Several industry pundits caution that the final spot on the list of five vying for the movies' top honor could go to one of a range of films.

"The Queen," an inside look at the British royals, director Clint Eastwood's "Letters from Iwo Jima," which tells the Japanese side of the World War II battle, September 11 drama "United 93," and the comeback story this season, "Bobby," about the legacy of former U.S. Senator Robert Kennedy, are all being given a shot -- if even a slim one in some cases.

"It's an incredibly stable group, but it will be a wide open race" when the five nominees are named, said David Poland, who runs the Moviecitynews.com Web site.

The world's top film awards, the Oscars -- or Academy Awards -- are given out annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in Beverly Hills, made up of actors, actresses, directors, producers and other movie industry professionals. This year, Oscar nominees will be named on January 23, and winners will be unveiled in a star-filled Hollywood gala on February 25.

This past week, nominees unveiled by the Producers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild helped define top contenders because many guild members are also Oscar voters. And over the next 10 days, several crucial events take place in the Hollywood sport of Oscar watching.

On Tuesday, the Directors Guild of America, names its nominees and historically DGA contenders correlate strongly with Oscars. "The Directors Guild will influence the race greatly. It always does," said USA Today critic Claudia Puig.

OF GUILDS AND GLOBES

Critical favorite "Letters" would see its Oscar chances rise if the directors single out Eastwood. The same is true for Britain's Stephen Frears with "The Queen" and Paul Greengrass for "United 93," and "Babel's" position as a true Oscar contender would solidify if Mexico's Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu made the DGA's list.

Two days later, the Writers Guild of America picks nominee for screenplays, and on January 15, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association gives out its Golden Globe awards, which will help indicate choices in the best actor and actress Oscar races.

The experts said the best actress race appears to be down to five candidates who mirror SAG's picks this week.

Those five are Helen Mirren playing Queen Elizabeth in "The Queen," Judi Dench as a manipulative teacher in "Notes on a Scandal," Meryl Streep portraying a wicked fashion editor in "The Devil Wears Prada," Spanish beauty Penelope Cruz as a working-class woman in "Volver" and Kate Winslet playing a woman in an extra-marital affair in "Little Children."

"We seem to have these ladies locked in," said Tom O'Neil, columnist for Theenvelope.com.

The race for best actor is less settled. The sure things seem to be Forest Whitaker playing dictator Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland," Peter O'Toole as an older man smitten with a young woman in "Venus" and Will Smith portraying a man overcoming life's obstacles in "The Pursuit of Happyness."

Leonardo DiCaprio also seems to be a good bet, but the question is for what role: a diamond smuggler in "Blood Diamond" or an undercover cop in "The Departed."

Finally, relative newcomer Ryan Gosling playing a drug abusing teacher in low-budget "Half-Nelson" is given an edge to make the fifth Oscar nomination spot.