Spider-Man, Shrek lead summer of sequels

LOS ANGELES - Get ready for the summer of sequels.

Starting with Sony's "Spider-Man 3," set to open May 4, and ending with New Line's "Rush Hour 3," slated for August 10, the schedule is stacked with high-profile releases that are expected to fill theaters and get cash registers cranking.

"Lines beget lines," says Chuck Viane, Disney's domestic distribution president. "You get people in there seeing the trailers for the fall movies and one thing triggers another. That's the really great thing about our business. When we're on a roll, there's a snowball effect."

If the summer of 2007 lives up to expectations, it could turn out to be the biggest in box office history, shattering the record held by the summer of 2004, when 557.4 million admissions generated roughly $3.5 billion in revenue during the 15 week period between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

Among the other films that are expected to get the record mojo going: Paramount-DreamWorks' "Shrek the Third," set for May 18; Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," which opens the next week; Warner Bros.' "Ocean's Thirteen" and Sony's "Surf's Up," both set to open June 8; Fox's "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer," slated for June 15; and Universal's "Evan Almighty," set for June 22.

The hit parade continues with Disney-Pixar's "Ratatouille" on June 29, Paramount's "Transformers" on July 4, Warner Bros.' "Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix," and New Line's "Hairspray" on July 20 and Fox's "The Simpsons Movie" on July 27.

Each studio has a couple of potential summer blockbusters, but could there be too much of a good thing? In the past, there has been more "breathing room" between films, a studio executive posits, wondering if the titles will step on each other's shelf life. "It will be interesting to see if this is a summer where we open big for a week then go away quickly."

But while the studios might fret the fate of individual films, the sheer number of big films opening seems to make it a no-lose situation for theater owners.

"This is a cyclical business and very dependent on product," says Mike Campbell, CEO of Regal Entertainment Group. "We had a good year in 2006, and I think what we've got upcoming in 2007 looks very, very strong. So I expect to see further recovery."

According to trade group the Motion Picture Assn. of America, U.S. box office revenue rose 5.5% to $9.49 billion in 2006, reversing two years of declines that had some observers wondering if the cinema experience was being displaced by home theaters, TiVo, video games and the like.

In retrospect, pundits are writing off the 2005 slump to a paucity of product. Based on the strong 2007 lineup, Bank of America analyst Michael Savner recently bumped up his growth estimate for this year by two-tenths of a percentage point to 5.0%.

Conscientious effort on the part of theater owners to upgrade the moviegoing experience is also helping. Theaters have been upgrading to more comfortable seating and lobby environments as well as in technical areas like sound, digital projection and 3-D.

"There's a lot of good intentions to enhance the moviegoing experience," says DreamWorks Animation chief Jeffrey Katzenberg. "I've met with many people on that side of the business and found them ambitious about innovating."