Taiwan's November export orders plunged 28.5 percent from a year earlier, a record fall and nearly three times the expectation, due to dismal bookings from the US and mainland amid the global economic turmoil, data showed.

Orders from the US fell 29 percent from a year earlier, recording the biggest-ever decline for Taiwan's second biggest export market. Orders from the mainland, Taiwan's biggest export market, tumbled 45.4 percent, their second-biggest fall on record.

Analysts expect Taiwan's orders, an indicator of the strength of global tech products and the island's actual exports in coming weeks, to post annual declines in coming months as fears of a global recession hit demand for the island's products.

Fang Wen-yen, a KGI Securities analyst, said that demand has shrunk quickly, so the visibility of export orders is very low. "It is clear that the trend is going down, so export figures won't be good either," Fang said.

The economy is mainly supported by the government's move to boost domestic consumption. Taiwan's central bank is aware of weak exports and has lowered interest rates sharply. "The central bank is not expected to cut the rate again now but it is likely to cut the rate by 50 basis points after the Lunar New Year holiday," Fang added.

In November, 47.3 percent of orders were made overseas, the ministry's data showed. About 77.6 percent of information technology products were produced abroad.

Cheng Cheng-mount, a Citigroup economist, said the big decline is in line with the global recession in November. "And now everyone's focused on whether December will be a bit better. We don't think it will be. It will keep getting worse."

Agencies

(HK Edition 12/24/2008 page2)