TAIPEI: Taiwan's export orders climbed in October for the first time in 13 months as stronger demand for electronics goods spurs the island's economic recovery.

Orders, an indication of shipments in the next one to three months, rose 4.41 percent from a year earlier, after a 3 percent drop in September, the economic affairs authorities said in Taipei today. The median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 3.95 percent gain.

The island's jobless rate fell for the first time in more than a year last month as improving exports prompted companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co to hire more people and forecast better sales. Taiwan is dependent on a rebound in overseas shipments to sustain its recovery from a yearlong recession.

"In the long term, Asian demand will still be the main export growth driver, as there are doubts in the market about the sustainability of the US economic recovery," said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd in Singapore.

Still the world's largest economy, the US expanded 3.5 percent in the third quarter after a yearlong contraction. However, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said November 19 the international community can't rely on US private consumption to support an economic recovery.

A revival in exports is needed to sustain Asia's emergence from the world recession after the region's governments pumped more than $950 billion into their economies and cut interest rates to boost growth.

The mainland's economy, Taiwan's biggest export market, expanded 8.9 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in a year, spurring sales for Taiwan electronics makers.

Taiwan's economy probably contracted 2.6 percent in the third quarter, after declining 7.54 percent in the preceding three months, according to the median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with exports accounting for more than two-thirds of the island's economy. The government is due to report third-quarter gross domestic product on November 26.

As for industrial production, a key element in export supply, Taiwan's rose 6.56 percent in October from a year earlier, after gaining a revised 1.66 percent in September, the government said yesterday.

"Export orders are likely to turn positive in the fourth quarter," Huang Ji-shih, the economics authorities' chief statistician, said in a briefing in Taipei yesterday. The value of orders is likely to be between $310 billion and $320 billion this year, he said, adding that industrial production probably shrank about 10 percent in 2009.

A detailed examination of Taiwan's individual export markets reveals positive turnarounds. The value of export orders rose to $31.75 billion last month, compared with $30.84 billion in September, yesterday's report showed.

Export orders to the mainland and Hong Kong combined rose 19.6 percent last month, compared with a gain of 9.44 percent in September. Orders from the US rose 0.67 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 10.6 percent decline in September.

Orders for electronics rose 4.07 percent last month, compared with a decline of 0.25 percent in September, yesterday's report showed.

Bloomberg News

(HK Edition 11/24/2009 page2)