TAIPEI: Taiwan's population could plateau (meaning: zero growth) by 2017, a decade earlier than previously estimated, a report said yesterday.

According to the Population Reference Bureau's 2008 survey, the island's population "rate of natural increase" (births-minus-deaths/1,000 people) has dropped to 0.3 percent, the world's lowest level. Moreover, on average, only 1.1 children are born per woman per lifetime in Taiwan - with only Hong Kong's and Macao's rate of 1.0 being lower, according to a 2008 Population Reference Bureau 2008 survey - well below the level required for replacement of each child-rearing couple.

Last year only 200,000 babies were born on the island, and, given current trends, the population, which currently stands at 23 million, is projected to reach a plateau (zero growth) seven years from now, the United Daily News reported.

An earlier forecast from the Council for Economic Planning and Development said this would not happen until 2027, according to the paper.

The normal replacement rate for a population is 2.1 births per woman. Officials at the council were not immediately available for comment.

Taiwan health officials have warned that the low birth rate and a rapidly aging society could lead to a spate of social problems.

Meanwhile, education officials have expressed concerns that more than one in three Taiwanese colleges could be forced to close by 2021 because of a shortage of students.

The government has been offering various incentives in an unsuccessful bid to boost fertility rates amid growing concerns that a severe manpower shortage will trigger more social and economic woes.

China Daily/AFP

(HK Edition 01/15/2010 page2)