Hong Kong's retail sales flew 18.9 percent to HK$27.2 billion in July from a year ago. This has been made possible by a surging flow of tourists and stronger local consumer confidence. And, of course, the current economic recovery has played its part.

In terms of volume, which eliminates the inflationary effect over the same period, retail sales increased by 16.0 percent in July compared with 2009, the government said Tuesday.

In fact, the upward journey began in last September. In the past 11 months, things have gone from strength to strength.In the first seven months this year, sales rose 18.0 percent in value and 14.9 percent in volume over the same period in 2009.

"Retail sales are benefiting from the robust inbound tourism in the city," said Kevin Lai, senior economist at Daiwa Institute Research. "The number of tourists has risen by around 30-40 percent year-on-year in recent months." Lai added.

According to the Hong Kong Tourism Board, the number has climbed to a record 3.14 million in July, a 32 percent rise.

A government spokesman said the prevailing sanguine local consumer confidence amid an improving labor market has added vigor to retail sales. In his assessment, sales of big-ticket items and durables are "particularly strong" now.

"Improved job and income prospects and, of course, this robust inbound tourism should continue to support the retail business.," the spokesman added.

Unemployment in the city also fell to 4.3 percent for the quarter ending July, the lowest in 19 months.

However, economist Lai preferred to speak with guarded optimism..

"Retail sales could have peaked ... as the GDP should have peaked in the first quarter," he said.

The city's economy grew by 6.5 percent in the second quarter compared with 2009, easing from an 8 percent strong first-quarter rebound, which was the fastest since 2006 due partly to a low comparable base last year.

China Daily

(HK Edition 09/01/2010 page3)