How will Duterte handle the hot potato?
New president's response to The Hague tribunal ruling may decide if, and how fast, relations with China can be thawed
Benigno Aquino III has left a hot potato for his successor, Rodrigo Duterte, who took office as the 16th president of the Philippines on June 30. That hot potato is an arbitral case concerning the South China Sea, which was raised by Aquino's cabinet in 2013 with support from Washington.
The tribunal at The Hague, started at Manila's request, embarked on compulsory proceedings despite China's refusal to participate.
The case has become a ticking bomb as the tribunal failed to make a ruling before Aquino ended his six-year tenure. The ruling is scheduled on July 12, and it will be Duterte's task to respond.
The new president may embrace a good opportunity to thaw icy Sino-Philippine relations if he conducts a "cooling treatment" after the ruling. Yet if he takes a hard-line position, he may trigger powerful countermeasures from China, and relations may be thrown back into the same deadlock as during the Aquino administration.
Of course, how to tackle the ruling will be tough for Duterte: If he courts Beijing, allies in the United States may pile on the pressure. In his first cabinet meeting after taking office, he sent a signal to China that he wants to manage the arbitration issue properly. We will see.
The best way to handle the ruling is to put it aside. Past administrations in China and the Philippines reached consensus on resolving disputes concerning the South China Sea through two-way negotiations. If both sides now can reach such a consensus, manage the potential crisis and strengthen cooperation, such efforts will boost mutual trust, nurture an atmosphere for resolving disputes, and get ties back on track.
Recently, Duterte has stated his readiness to visit China. It is a good idea. Whether he visits or not, though, political relations between the two countries should be improved. At least political willingness should be manifested and contacts should be reinforced.
The climate of public opinion is also important for improving ties, and there are still unfriendly voices among the Philippine media. A number of these news outlets have been greatly influenced by the West, and the experts they interview are often supportive of the opinions in the West.
Yet some opinion polls show that good will toward China still remains among the general public, and the nationalistic mood against China is not that strong as reported in the media.
The countries have a history of people-to-people exchanges going back more than 100 years. Many Chinese have got along well with people from the Philippines, even going on to become an integral part of local communities there. If Duterte can work on improving media exchanges, then the hostility toward China could be diminished.
As for future foreign policy, the Duterte administration will not drift too far from the US as it seeks to improve ties with Beijing, and the new president will likely want to address the demands from traditional allies properly, which includes holding joint military drills.
In the past, the Philippines has made trouble over maritime issues within the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Most of the time, the ASEAN has reined in Manila's impulses.
Many ASEAN members believe they should not be involved in the South China Sea disputes, which are not issues between China and the ASEAN but rather between the members directly concerned. The ASEAN, as a regional organization, cannot take sides between China and the US if it hopes to maintain its centrality. Taking sides will make ASEAN a follower.
As the Philippines will take the rotating presidency of the ASEAN next year, it is hoped the country will help the bloc reaffirm its neutrality and the openness that has been honored for a long time.
The writer is a researcher on Southeast Asian and Philippine studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
