Rebuilding shattered Aleppo will take billions

Fighting has ended in Aleppo, and now talk is beginning to turn to the question of how to rebuild Syria's largest city, where entire blocks have been smashed to rubble in scenes reminiscent of World War II devastation. The task will take tens of billions of dollars.

But hopes for rebuilding collide with daunting realities.

Without a comprehensive peace deal to Syria's civil war, Western nations are unlikely to give funds to the Syrian government, which remains under US, European, and Arab sanctions that bar aid. Even Syria's allies, Russia and Iran, show little enthusiasm to shoulder rebuilding costs.

There is the question of how to discuss reconstruction while the war still rages. Much depends on the shape of any eventual political settlement ending the conflict. Rebuilding without a deal may only entrench demographic changes caused by the war which have run along sectarian lines.

Still, the European Union, where nearly 1 million Syrians are seeking asylum, says planning must start now. The questions surrounding Aleppo, where fighting ended last month with the government's capture of the entire city, point to the wider problems that will be faced in rebuilding the appalling destruction across Syria from its six-year civil war.

The EU wants to host a conference in the spring on the future of Syria with a focus on reconstruction. UN officials are scrambling to form a vision for a future Syria and find ways to tackle financing.

"I remember people were telling us, 'Are you mad? You start planning for rebuilding now?' And my reaction was, 'It is already too late,'" said Abdullah Al Dardari, deputy executive secretary for the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia.

"One day soon, hopefully, when there is a peace agreement of some sort and we need to deliver to the people of Syria on basic services and housing and schooling and all this, you will see how much time we really needed for planning."

Al Dardari estimated war damage across Syria so far at $350 billion, including physical damage amid loss of economic activity. Aleppo's share is about 15 percent, or over $52 billion, he said, though others put the estimate at nearly double that.

"The economic damage is beyond calculation at the moment," Al Dardari said, who later this month will move to the World Bank as an adviser on reconstruction efforts in the Middle East.

Since 2012, Aleppo was divided between a government-held west and opposition-held east, with constant battling between the two sides.

The east bore the brunt, under bombardment by government artillery, airstrikes and helicopter-dropped barrel bombs.