Deng Yusong

I. Energy Output and Demand Grew Rapidly in 2010, but the Growth Decreased on a Quarterly Basis

1. Output of major energy products grew rapidly, yet the growth decreased on a quarterly basis

In 2010, the output of major energy products grew rapidly. The output of major energy products, such as power generation and oil products, all grew obviously faster than that in 2009. From January through December, energy output reached 4206.54 billion KWh, up 13.2% from a year ago (Table 1), being 6.15 percentage points faster than that during the same period of 2009; the amount of oil processed reached 422.869 million tons, up 13.4% year on year, being 5.5 percentage points faster than that in the same period of 2009. Although the output of the major energy products grew fast in 2010, as the economic growth dropped since the second quarter, the output of the major energy products, such as energy production, all dropped on a quarterly basis. Of this drop, the growth of power generation dropped by 6.1 percentage points from January to December as compared with the first half of the year and the growth of processed crude oil dropped by 4.4 percentage points as compared with the first half of the year.

Table 1　Output of Major Energy Products in December 2010

	Unit	December	Accumulative total	Growth over the same period of the previous year(%)
				This month	Accumulative total
Raw coal	10,000 tons	32854.45	324000.0	1.7	8.9
Crude oil	10,000 tons	1752.09	20301.58	9.04	7.1
Natural gas	100 million cubic meters	88.24	967.6	18.27	13.5
Amount of crude oil processed	10000 tons	3872.31	42286.9	12.23	13.4
Gasoline	10,000 tons	690.14	7675.3	4.22	5.13
Kerosene	10,000 tons	137.88	1714.7	-0.82	15.3
Diesel	10,000 tons	1463.56	15887.4	10.5	11.96
Coke	10,000 tons	3420.17	38757.1	-2.34	9.13
Generated energy	100 million KWh	3677.97	42065.4	5.11	13.2
Thermal power	100 million KWh	3040.65	33301.3	0.73	11.6
Hydraulic power	100 million KWh	472.21	7210.2	27.77	17.1

Note: The figures of output are all from industrial enterprises above the designated size.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics.

2. Energy supply and demand turned out even on the whole and diesel supply was relatively tight in the fourth quarter

In 2010, demand for such major energy products as power and oil products increased by a wide margin as compared with 2009, which is relative to the low base figure turning up in the same period of 2009. As the production capacity of power, coal and oil products has been substantially enhanced over recent years, plus the rapid increase of coal and oil imports, energy supply and demand turned out even on the whole in 2010. In the fourth quarter, affected by some short-term factors, diesel supply was relatively tight in some regions.

In 2010, coal output continued to grow rapidly in China and coal imports increased considerably. As a result, coal supply turned out normal during the whole year and coal stock of the whole society stood at a normal level. Except for the coal stock being relatively low in January 2010, after February the coal stock remained an all-time high. By the end of December, the coal stock nationwide reached 206.314 million tons, with an increase of 53.803 million tons over the same period of the previous year, up 35.3%.

In the first three quarters of 2010, supply of and demand for oil products turned out even on the whole, but diesel stock continued to decrease. By the end of September, diesel stock dropped by 14.4% against the outset of the year. Since October, the diesel market had faced such negative factors as the rise of international oil prices, increase of oil for power generation and the diesel stock remaining at a low level, leading to a relatively tight diesel supply.

3. Energy prices continued to rise in 2010 and they remained high before they went down as compared with the same period of the previous year

In 2010, prices of major energy products, such as oil, coal and power, showed an upward trend on the whole. However, since energy prices rose gradually from a relatively low level in 2009, those prices remained high before they went down in 2010 as compared with the same period of the previous year.

(1) In 2010 the international oil price fluctuated around 80 US dollars and the domestic prices of oil products were adjusted for four times

In 2010, the international oil price was generally fluctuating around 70~90 US dollars per barrel. Affected by such factors as expectations of the global economic recovery in the first four months, the international oil price went up gradually. In April, the monthly average price (Platts, same below) of WTI reached USD83.58/barrel, up 65.93% from a year earlier. After May, affected by such factors as the sovereign debt crisis sweeping across some European countries and the appreciation of US dollar, the international oil price began to decline, with the monthly average price of WTI falling to USD70.38/barrel in June, up 2.54%, year on year. In the third quarter, the international oil price fluctuated around USD75.00/barrel on the whole. In the fourth quarter, affected by such factors as the devaluation of US dollar, the international oil price went up month by month, with the monthly average price of WTI rising to USD83.83/barrel in November. In 2010, to adapt to the change of international crude oil price, the State Development and Reform Commission (SDRC) adjusted the domestic prices of oil products respectively on April 14, June 1, October 26 and December 22.

(2) Coal prices went up on the whole

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, since 2010, producer prices of coal and coking industries remained at a growth rate of around 10%. In November, with the advent of the winter peak time for coal consumption, the growth of producer prices of coal and coking industries stepped up. In terms of the price changes in places of coal transshipment, the price of steam coal in Qinhuangdao rose by more than 10% as compared to 2009, yet in December the price of the steam coal remained the same as that in the same period of the previous year and in the beginning of 2011.

(3) The producer price of the electric power increased on a small scale

In 2010, the producer price of electric power continued to rise on a small scale, with the rise remaining at 2% or so in the whole year.

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