By Cheng Yu, Zhou Lin & Cheng Guangyan, Research Team on “The Estimation of China’s Peak Food Demand and Countermeasures”, Research Department of Rural Economy, DRC

Research Report No.35, 2016 (Total 1510) 2016-08-18

Abstract: Increased income drives on the upgrading of food structure of urban and rural residents in China. Vertically speaking, the last decade has witnessed some changes in food consumption structure of the Chinese people, in which the demand for food has decreased while indirect consumption of grains for forage has increased rapidly. Horizontally, the total demand of people with high income is much stronger, and compared to people with low income, they consume more forage grains but less food. Based on relevant survey findings, this report illustrates food consumption changes along with income increase. Through a comparison between per capita peak food consumption in developed countries and regions in Southeast Asia and that of China, it makes a judgment and a forecast on per capita peak food demand of urban and rural residents as well as migrant workers respectively in China. The research findings show that the per capita peak food demand will reach 370.2 kg by 2069, and from 2031 onwards, this amount will get stabilized at 136.8 kg. If the consumption of soybean is added to that, the per capita peak food demand for food will stand at 528.94 kg.

Key words: grain, per capita peak demand, forecast