From Overseas Press

War could hit North America this century

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2011-06-15 16:41

Although North America was exempted from bloodshed in the 20th century, the 21st century could see warfare spread to the continent, predicts Irvin Studin, author of Canada's national security policy, in an essay in this week’s international affairs magazine Global Brief.

While every other continent?- even Oceania?- endured large-scale warfare on its territory in the past hundred years, Canada and the United States?- the "core North America"?- never witnessed battles fought on their home front, points out Studin, who is with the University of Toronto's School of Public Policy and Governance and co-author of Canada’s 2004 national security policy. He also is founding editor-in-chief and publisher of Global Brief.

For practical reasons and purposes, says Studin, North America in the 20th century was the world's luckiest continent: "While wars raged on other continents, North America could, as a general rule, calmly debate, plan and build prosperous societies underpinned by energetic economies, a relaxed, educated population, and advanced infrastructure that?- to be sure?- would not be bombed."

However, driven by technological changes and geopolitical shifts, this new century will almost certainly offer a "new strategic reality" and drastically change the continent's geopolitical luck, according to Studin's 2,800-word essay.

First, because of technological improvement, he believes even secondary or regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Venezuela will acquire the technical means to directly and regularly strike North America by intercontinental missile, air power, and offshore bombardment by the middle of this century.

Second, a quickly melting Arctic means foreign ships, whether private or military, will soon sail through the Northwest Passage and Arctic waters at will, "just as they do today through the Straits of Malacca, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal," thus "penetrating the continent's theretofore near-perfect territorial sovereignty," Studin notes.

Finally, while the US will remain the preponderant power for at least another four decades, it is undoubtedly in relative strategic decline. The return of strategic parity among other non-American, historic great powers?- China, Russia and even Europe?- will pose both psychological and practical consequences for North American strategic culture and doctrine, says Studin.