Brace for a baby boom

The number of applications to have a second child is different in different provinces. It not only varies according to each province's population, but is also influenced by the degree of strictness with which the family planning policy has been implemented in the province. In provinces where the family planning policy has been strictly implemented, the application numbers are high, while in the ones where it has not been strictly enforced, they are comparatively low. In Shandong province, the number of applications exceeded 60,000 in July and August both, which is almost 9 times more than in Henan, even though the two provinces enforced the policy almost at the same time.

Another interesting fact is that about 65 percent of the applications have been filed in the eastern provinces, whose combined population is 45 percent of the country's total. Plus, the applicants are mainly urban residents. The increase in newborns, therefore, would be profound in the eastern regions and urban areas.

The new policy, however, will put more pressure on maternity services and childcare providers, especially in the eastern region and urban areas, and drastically raise the demand for baby products, especially infant formula.

In short, therefore, the new policy indicates a change in the strict family planning policy, which has been in force for more than three decades, and, unlike what some media outlets initially reported, it has evoked a good response, in line with expectations. And we could see a baby boom in the coming years.

The author is director of the School of Sociology and Population Studies at Renmin University of China.