Trump and China: Looking into crystal ball
Editor's note: With Donald Trump becoming the president-elect of the US, we asked experts for their views on how Trump’s presidency would look like for China.
Experts' take
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| Xenia Wickett |
"Trump is likely to prioritize economic growth as a foreign policy objective. This sits behind a number of his policy proposals not least his attitude towards trade agreements (not that they are bad but instead badly negotiated) and his insistence that China play more fairly on currency, subsidies and industrial espionage. If he can find ways to work collaboratively with China on economic issues this will predominate. However, if China takes a more assertive approach on these issues, it will draw out a strong response. The unpredictability comes from understanding what Trump will deem 'fair' in these circumstances. His all or nothing approach could swing either way."
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| Dan Steinbock |
"In foreign trade, Trump has pledged to tear up or renegotiate the TPP agreement which has potential to undermine Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s economic reforms and controversial security agenda. It would be a huge embarrassment to the ASEAN nations that have joined the TPP. To reduce the US trade deficit with the region, Trump would raise trade rhetoric, tariffs and import duties against China, Japan and low-cost ASEAN."
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| Harvey Dzodin |
"Judging from Trump’s comments and the Republican National Committee platform, Sino-US relations will definitely emphasize the second syllable of “frenemies”. China can look forward to economic warfare from punitive US tariffs and trade barriers. Trump wants to upend the post-1945 world order, end alliances, close military bases in places like Japan and Korea and let allies fend for themselves. However this is merely an educated guess because we don’t know who will advise Trump and if he will listen to them, but they’re likely to be seasoned cold warriors and neoconservatives, the likes of whom brought us the “l(fā)iberation” of Iraq and other disasters for which the world still suffers mightily."
