Japan reactor restarts unlikely despite LDP win

Unrelenting

But pressure from business interests will be unrelenting.

Both the Keidanren, Japan's biggest business lobby, and the Federation of Electric Power Companies, called on the new government this week to bring nuclear back into the energy mix.

"They have opposed the policy of phasing out nuclear power which they claim is significantly increasing electricity charges for industrial and domestic customers, jeopardising the international competitiveness of Japanese industry," O'Sullivan said.

Fossil fuel imports have risen sharply since the Fukushima meltdowns, helping push the country into a trade deficit that increased to the largest in 10 months in November.

Utilities have mostly increased purchases of natural gas. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports rose 11.6 percent to almost 80 million tons, in the first 11 months of 2012, from a year earlier, according to Ministry of Finance data issued on Wednesday.

That is equal to one third of global trade in LNG in 2011.

The Fukushima disaster, the worst nuclear accident in the world in a quarter century, prompted the gradual shutdown of all Japan's nuclear reactors until there were none left operating in May 2011.

The DPJ government's decision to restart two reactors last July to prevent possible summer power shortages galvanised the country's previously dormant anti-nuclear movement and sparked the biggest demonstrations in decades.

With no evidence subsequently that the two reactors were vital to meet demand, protesters still gather en masse every week outside the prime minister's office and parliament.

"Any restarts might inflame public opinion, particularly in the large urban centres and those prefectures that do not host nuclear power facilities," O'Sullivan said.

Both political considerations and safety issues will probably mean no early decision on restarting reactors even if the NRA declares them safe, J.P. Morgan analysts said this week.

"It is uncertain if there will be restarts prior to peak summer power demand, as media polls suggest that over half of the Japanese population favours phasing out nuclear power," they said in a research note.

"The impending upper house election, which takes place in July 2013, may also encourage policymakers to put off decisions to a later date."